Southern Political Report - GOP wants to Take on Kissell

According to an article today in the Southern Political Report, the Republican Party is looking to put a full court press on Larry Kissell for his seat in North Carolina's 8th Congressional District in 2010. They are already lining up possible candidates and are hoping to lure the loser of the 2008 NC Gubernatorial election and Charlotte Mayor, one Pat McCrory. If McCrory doesn't pan out, they are willing to turn back to Robin Hayes if necessary, although Hayes is supposedly assisting the party with searching for other viable candidates that would have a chance in a race against Larry Kissell.

From Southern Political Report - July 8, 2009:

When Democrat Larry Kissell came within a whisker of beating incumbent US Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC) in 2006, he became the early favorite for 2008. His folksy campaign techniques (appearing with a goat named “CAFTA” to draw attention to Hayes’s ultimate support for the trade agreement), along with his next-door neighbor background (school teacher, low-level textile management) made him a highly successful politician, despite having a poorly financed campaign (the DCCC didn’t believe in him) and the near-snooty disapproval of the district’s establishment. So when other seemingly more muscular Democrats angled for the 2008 congressional nomination, they quickly found that Kissell had the votes. Moreover, this time Democrats in Washington took notice and Kissell’s campaign was adequately funded. His 329-vote loss in 2006 became a 30,391-vote victory in 2008.

Nevertheless, there is much to suggest that Kissell’s 8th District (part of Charlotte, Salisbury, etc.) is a prime prospect for a Republican pickup next year. The marginally GOP-leaning district is 27% African-American, a segment of the electorate that turned out in high numbers in 2008 to support Barack Obama. Without Obama at the top of the ticket, this reliable Democratic group is likely to vote in smaller numbers. Moreover, although the President still gets a favorable approval rating in the state, his stimulus package is not popular, which could help the Republicans.

The top choice of Republican insiders to make the race is Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. His assets are impressive. He has been a popular mayor (an unprecedented eight terms) and is likely to run well in the portion of Charlotte and its suburbs that are in the 8th District. In addition, he has substantial name ID in the rest of the district after a strong race for governor last fall (47%). He is also an experienced candidate, a good debater, and he can raise money, essential to a successful campaign. McCrory is actively considering the race, but has not made a decision. His yea or nay is not likely to come in the next several weeks, but GOP insiders are hoping he’ll get in the race not too far down the line.

The entire story is here and is worth a close review: http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_78_931.aspx

In his summation of the 2010 race for NC-08, the author of this article, Hastings Wyman states that "Kissell’s economic populism may still have more appeal than fiscal responsibility associated with opposition to Obama’s spending programs". Yet, make no mistake, the Republican's are coming for Larry Kissell's Congressional seat and they are going to pull out all the stops in doing so.

Larry? What are you going to do to get the Democratic base behind you when it comes to votes in Congress? Are you going to continue to vote like a Republican as you did on the American Clean Energy and Security Act while incorrectly stating that this resolution would have hurt people in your district, or are you going to vote like a Democrat and do your best to clean up our environment and bring affordable and non-junk health care to all the people of NC-08?

The ball is in Larry's court. Let's hope the guy most of us here donated to, volunteered for and were cheerleaders for in the last two election cycles returns to his senses. If not, with that Republican full court press that is coming and a missing Democratic base to get his back, the only return Larry is going to do is when he returns back to North Carolina after losing his seat to a Republican. A Republican who WILL NOT work for the people of NC-08. What a shame that would be for everyone involved.

Comments

One Big Glaring Problem w/ the Article

is likely to run well in the portion of Charlotte and its suburbs that are in the 8th District.

Of the part of the district in Charlotte, McCrory lost all but one precinct to Bev Perdue.

"Keep the Faith"

McCrory would have trounced Bev...

had the messiah not been heading the ticket. Face the facts, I had to...Obama was a rockstar and got support from people who would NEVER turn out in a non-presidential election. It didn't hurt that the GOP had a weak RINO heading their ticket either.

Hell, if I had it to do over again I wouldn't have compromised my principles and would have pulled the lever for Ron Paul.

Maybe the reason Kissell voted against Cap and Tax is because conservatives and moderates like me called and wrote his office saying we would spare no resources making sure he never got re-elected and we meant it.

Don't delude yourselves into thinking the 8th has lost all it's values and has gone California.

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Government crises are usually manufactured to pick your pocket.

since when is global warming a value?

I mean, you can say that you're in favor of climate destruction because

  1. God is in charge and He doesn't let bad things happen to good people
  2. Rich people can always just buy bottled water and filtered air
  3. or, Rush Limbaugh told you that global warming is a dirty trick to distract you from your true mission to buy as much crap as your SUV can possibly haul away

But none of these are values or principles; they're just fashion accessories. What is the moral value that justifies living in filth?

Just my two cents...

Global Warming is the "fashion accessory"...

Jerimee. There is a common misconception among liberals that conservatives are nasty polluters...au contraire. Many of us believe that is nothing more than a power grab by zealots to control many aspects of our lives according to your "values". Your laundry list makes my point. BTW, I don't own an SUV, but it is anyone's right to do so and also to, "buy as much crap as your SUV can possibly haul away".
I do own one performance car that averages about 18mpg but since gasoline prices have risen, I mostly drive the 2002 Toyota Camry 4-cyl that my Mother left when she died last year. It gets about 25-30 mpg. I don't drive it to be "green", I drive it because it's CHEAPER and I'm a skinflint! Amazing how economics will drive people to do the "right thing". I even use synthetic lubricants because they increase efficiency and require fewer changes...damn I am green!
Difference between you and me, Jerimee is that I don't try to force my "values" on others via government laws and mandates (at the point of a gun) based on dwindling scientific "evidence" that global warming is significantly influenced by human activities.

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Government crises are usually manufactured to pick your pocket.

Two things

One the Democratic base will be behind Larry no matter how he votes. Also McCrory lives in the 9th District. Unlike the 8th it is a safe Republican district, also Sue Myrick who has health issues is rumored to be retiring, so the NRCC has to convice McCrory to run in a district he does not live in that has a Democratic incumbent and and has a Democratic lean, or he can run in an open seat he lives in and is heavily Republican, I wonder what he will do, if Pat runs against Kissell and loses it will damage his political future chances losing two in a row that close togather.

I don't think so.

The Democratic base is somehow different in that if you vote like a Republican, many times you will find yourself out of work.

Larry won with tons of grassroots effort. If that effort is not there, then the money won't be either and how he votes is going to matter. You can take that to the bank.

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

That district

Has a huge Democratic lean to it to begin with, the reason why Hayes was able to win it as long as he did was because he had both the Cannon name and money behind him, but when the mill closed he was in trouble. Kissell will have a much easier time winning that district, but where you and I disagree is that district while being a Democratic one is also a conservative one. He has a better chance of losing by thumbing his nose at the rural eastern folks of his district than the anyone else though since he is from the rural party of the district he may well be voting his consious.

Actually, where we disagree is the part

where reality was traded off for opinion.

Reality:

The marginally GOP-leaning district is 27% African-American, a segment of the electorate that turned out in high numbers in 2008 to support Barack Obama.

Opinion:

That district Has a huge Democratic lean to it to begin with

I stand by my previous statement.

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

The Democrats in the district are moderate

and conservative. You can't run on the assumption that all Democrats think the way we do. Liberals make up what...12% of Democrats in North Carolina? Trust me, Larry Kissell is a rock star in-district.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

It's not his district that actually matters, though.

Larry was not a good fund raiser. I can link, but you are already aware. His money truly came from the grass roots outside of his district (since they don't seem to have any money OR any jobs these days) and the DNCC. He had phone bankers and letter writers from all over the US. He will not get any kind of support like he saw this cycle if he votes like a Republican. He was a rock star on Dkos. A LOT of money came in from that venue. That won't happen again if this continues.

Larry was never touted as a progressive. He also was willing to tell the netroots that he was far more left than the average Blue Dog, and the netroots supported him. In 2006 and 2008. What will they do in 2010 if he backs the wrong horses for the next two years?

The point is that Larry will lose to a Republican in 2010 if he becomes one of them.

I stand by my original statement. ;-)

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

It is his district that actually votes for him

He didn't get that much money from anyone in 2006 and he almost won at the top of the ticket. In 2010 there should be help at the top of the ticket. It won't take as much money for him to demonstrate to his constituents that he will represent their interests because he is actually there doing it and they love him for it.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

What he did get in 2006 is exposure

and a whole lot of phone callers / door knockers / post card writers.

I must defer to your better knowledge of the district, yet I still must assert that if he votes like a Republican, he will lose in 2010. The DNCC won't back him, the grassroots won't back him, the Republicans will spend a ton of money in district to defeat him and as they already feel there is an opening in district, Larry better watch his backside big time.

Voters change their minds. A lot of money buys a lot of negative ads. You know the drill. I've gone through this cycle before in my previous state of residence and I've seen it happen.

Do what you told the people you would do and you'll be fine. Tell one group one thing and tell your out-of-district supporters something else and the money is gone.

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

He is doing what he told the people he would do

He hasn't gone back on one promise. He never said he was a progressive. He didn't tell one group one thing and one group another. So...I guess by your reasoning listed above he is safe.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

You must be correct.

You know the district and the people as well as what he told the people.

By that reasoning, he will lose in 2010 if he votes like a Republican. He ran as a Democrat.

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

play all the verbal gymnastics you want

He ran as a moderate Democrat in a district filled with moderate Democrats and his votes have pleased the moderate Democrats living in his district. He doesn't vote like a Republican enough for some Democrats in his district. Thank goodness he isn't trying to please that faction of our party.

I don't like all of his votes, but I'm not going to pretend that our displeasure equals doom to Larry Kissell.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Play? Verbal gymnastics aren't my specialty

I've said it plainly and clearly in each and every previous post. Vote like a Republican, lose.

You can decide that I'm wrong on that and that is cool. I can decide that you are wrong and it's equally cool. You can call it verbal gymnastics, yet that is what you are calling it. I call it being honest with what one feels after having past experience and reading what is happening now. We disagree. I'm not playing anything.

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

Damn! You stole my thunder

I was saving that little tidbit for the next time folks worked themselves into a lather. Nice to see you out and about. It's been a while. I've missed you.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Looking inside the numbers is where I have an issue.

06/26/2009 Energy Bill
HR 2454 N Bill Passed - House (219 - 212)

03/19/2009 TARP Recipient Bonuses Tax
HR 1586 N Bill Passed - House (328 - 93)

03/05/2009 Mortgage Restructuring In Bankruptcy
HR 1106 N Bill Passed - House (234 - 191)

04/02/2009 FDA Oversight of Tobacco Products
HR 1256 N Bill Passed - House (298 - 112)

This is some really important legislation needed to move our country out of the age of tax cuts solve all economic problems, regulation is evil and government is the problem, the free market solves all our problems, government sponsered healthcare is a failure in other countries so it would be here also, and back into an age of a more open and caring government that actually represents the people.

Believe me, you and I may disagree and I realize that likely that means one of us is wrong, and that it might be me. However, that isn't how I feel at this time.

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

ARE YOU FULL OF IT

First of all Larry is now an incumbent and if he has a weakness in raising money, I am not sure he does, then he will find it much easier being in office. A series of $ 1,000.00 or $ 500.00 dinners these folks throw just for starters, but it does not end there. I do not know what the DNCC is but the DCCC will back him, if you know anything about them they could careless how he votes after the first two votes in the House, the Speaker vote and the rules package. Heath Shuler who votes far more often with the GOP has had no troulbel getting there support. The DNC will also back him because he had a D next to his name. The fact the GOP is trying to recriut someone from out of the district, like McCrory who as I have been told is looking very had at the ninth, which is not only his district but is a safe Repulbican district and as I have said Sue Myrick has health issues and has given hints she is may well retire in 2010. To me this shows and act of desperation from the GOP, if they can not find someone who lives in the 8th to run. I am sure you will find someway to refute me, but to me the GOP looks desperate.

everybody has an agenda

It is what life is about. As for me politics play only one role in my life. Aside from my wife and children, I coach little league baseball and basketball. I am a cub scout leader, I teach a senior adult Sunday School Class, not to mention I have a full time job in the accouting department, and I am a right fair bowler also. So while I have several agenda's politics is not even my main one. So who are you and what are you about.

Reality once again

The 4th and the 13th are not the 8th.

Back to your statement that the 8th is overwhelmingly Democratic. It isn't.

Anything else now?

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

Lots of folks in this district don't even vote

The turnout in the 8th was 150,000 votes less than the 4th, in fact the lowest in state (the 1st district was just ahead of it in turnout). In fact, in winning the 8th by 10%, Kissell received only a few thousand more votes than B.J. Lawson did while losing the 4th in a landslide. David Price received almost as many votes as Kissell and Hayes combined.

Not just about turnout

The 4th has a had much higher level of population growth since the census.

"Keep the Faith"

??? since which census? 2000?

Have they had a higher level of population growth since last year? I'm not sure what you mean.

yes of course

of course since 2000. The previous commenter was comparing the 4th to the 8th in terms of raw vote totals but they have different populations, so comparing the raw vote totals is not necessarily indicative of turnout.

"Keep the Faith"

That accounts for some of the difference...

...but not nearly all. Look at historical voting patterns, that area has always had lower turnout than the other parts of the state. The 7th has fairly low turnout too, I think that was about 300,000 last year. Over 400,000 voted in the 4th.