Shuler Ahead of Taylor in New Poll

I'll have more analysis on this later

Charles Taylor’s vulnerability has only increased in the last three months. Negative press stories continue to hurt his personal popularity, while the national political environment becomes more and more treacherous for Republicans. While challenger Heath Shuler has nearly doubled his favorable rating, Taylor’s personal popularity, job rating and re-elect measure all continue to worsen. Taylor’s troubles have turned the race into a statistical dead heat, with Shuler holding a slight lead.

• Shuler now leads Taylor by a 45% to 43% margin. Taylor held a small, seven-point lead in February (47% Taylor/40% Shuler). A torrent of negative press stories connecting Taylor even closer to the Abramoff scandal and on his miscues on the 9-11 monument funding have has hurt Taylor’s standing with voters.

• Taylor receives a weak 50% positive / 45% negative job rating. Taylor’s ratio of positives to negatives is the worst for any incumbent we’ve polled this year.

• Taylor’s high negative job rating has cut him off from potential expansion. Among undecided voters, Taylor has an 52% negative job rating.

• Taylor’s high negatives lead to a net-negative re-elect measure. Just 42% say they would vote to re-elect Taylor, while 48% would vote for someone new. Taylor’s re-elect measure has dropped four points since February (46% re-elect).

• Taylor is battling a very difficult national political environment for Republicans.

A majority of voters (61%) think things in the United States are moving in the wrong direction. George Bush’s job rating is just 38% positive / 61% negative, down from February (44% positive/54% negative). Taylor is fighting national currents without strong personal support measures to give him cover.

• Heath Shuler receives a 36% favorable / 12% unfavorable rating. Shuler’s name ID is up 19 points since February, and his favorable rating is up 16 points. Shuler has the momentum in this campaign.

• The generic ballot has gotten better for Democrats in just three months. Currently 44% of voters say they are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress, while just 36% say they prefer a Republican – an eight-point advantage. In February, the generic ballot was 41% Democrat/39% Republican.

Comments

That's great Screwy...

who did the poll? Is there a direct link?



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

This is great news

but it also means that Taylor is fighting from a position of desperation. Look for the old man to make things ugly.

yes, please, get Taylor out

So I don't feel the need to continue to research the scum. It gives me a headache.
 
“All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.”
So enjoy the Drama.

Link to Citizen-Times: Shuler Leads

Link Text

Heath Shuler’s congressional campaign released polling data on Thursday that shows the Bryson City Democratic challenger with a 2-point lead over incumbent Charles Taylor, R-Brevard.

“We are pleased with the results,” said Shuler, 34, who hopes to unseat Taylor, a 16-year House veteran. “It confirms what we’ve been hearing in the district since we started the race — that people are ready for a change.”

The poll, conducted by Democratic polling firm Anzalone-Liszt Research of Montgomery, Ala., shows Shuler leading Taylor by 45 percent to 43 percent. But the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, a fairly typical number. Taylor held a 7-point lead in February, the firm said in a press release.

Anzalone-Liszt conducted the polling between May 4 and Monday, interviewing 400 “likely 2006 general election voters” in the 11th Congressional District. Respondents were selected randomly.

The polling data shows Taylor with a 50 percent “positive,” 45 percent “negative” job rating. The poll found 42 percent of respondents would vote to re-elect Taylor, while 48 percent said they would vote for someone new.

Voters Moving to Shuler

The voters are moving in Shuler's direction. Shuler was -7 in Feb and is +2 now - that's a nine point swing and is outside the margin of error. But it is still too close.

Too many voters don't know the facts on their slimeball congressman. We need to keep Taylor's bad news on the front page to remind voters what a scumbag he is.