Presidential Primary Returns Open Thread

Hill-A-Ry * Hill-A-Ry * Hill-A-Ry

Well, folks, I still don't know who I will vote for in the presidential primary, but I still have dreams of my vote making a difference. For that to happen Hillary needs to pull out some wins tonight.

I know this is very selfish of me, but I want North Carolina Democrats to experience the mad rush of excitement on a primary day when it actually matters who we vote for. I want Obama and Clinton stumping in this state fighting for our votes. I want to see long lines at the polls. I want to see Dems with primaries busting it to figure out how to capitalize on the massive turnout.

I want election day excitement dagnabbit! (....and I don't want to wait until May 6 to get it!)

So........for tonight........and for very selfish reasons..........

Hill-A-Ry * Hill-A-Ry * Hill-A-Ry

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Comments

Okay

I'll be a Hillary supporter for a couple of hours, just to jump on your bandwagon. If she hangs in close, there's a case to be made for keeping up the campaign. If she gets blown out, not so much.

But I agree with you about the impact of a tightly contested race on the primary. Having both candidates criss-crossing NC for votes would mostly be a good thing. In any case, thought, I don't like seeing the campaign turn ugly, which is likely to get worse the longer it goes on.

I'll go out on limb and predict that tonight's primaries

will leave things as they have been - unresolved.

Obama looks to have an edge in Texas, while Clinton has an edge in Ohio and Rhode Island. I have no info on Vermont, but I would expect The Green Mountain state to lean Clinton as it lies between NH and NY.

So Clinton might gain some ground but not enough to overtake Obama.

Suprises are certainly possible as Obama might tie Ohio and get enough in th eoddly structured TX primary cum caucus to more than offset RI. Who knows??? It is fun predicting though.

All roads lead to the PA turnpike, and then Betsy just might get her wish. :)

Person County Democrats

I actively oppose gerrymandering. Do you?

Mixed feelings.

I've already got campaign fatigue, and it's not even May, let alone November. Part of me wants it to be settled decisively tonight so the national party can heal a little. The other part of me is screaming for the excitement of an honest-to-the-Thing-That-Sits-on-High* Presidential Campaign blowing through NC. w00t! Just the thought of that sent a jolt of adrenaline through me. ::shiver:: When do the Ohio polls close?

*This is a West Wing Reference. It's obscure, but I've been watching old episodes on the DVD, and I lurve it.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Which

Which West Wing episode is that? I'm a WW fanatic and I can't recall.

I've been thinking a lot today about that final scene between Toby and Bartlet in "H. CON - 172:"

TOBY: Hey, your favorite movie was on TV last night.

BARTLET: "By God, I'm 50, alive, and the King all at the same time."

TOBY: I turned it on just as they got to the scene when Richard, Geoffrey and John were locked in the dungeon and Henry was coming down to execute them. Richard tells his brothers not to cower but to take it like men. And Geoffrey says, "You fool! As if it matters how a man falls down." And Richard says...

BOTH: "When the fall is all that's left...

BARTLET: ...it matters a great deal."

TOBY: It matters a great deal.

Good advice to be had there.

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

It's this one.

Election Night.

". . . we won. We don't have to pander," Sam tells them.
"Please don't say that. . . ." Toby says from the other end of the room. "I'm not kidding. . . . We haven't won anything yet."
"The speech is done," C.J says.
"Two speeches are done," Toby tells her.
"What's the second?"
"I've got a speech if he wins. I've got a speech if he doesn't."
"You wrote a concession?" Sam asks him.
"Of course I wrote a concession. You want to tempt the wrath of whatever from high atop the thing?"
"No."
"Then go outside, turn around three times, and spit. What the hell is the matter with you?"
"It's like 25 degrees outside. . . ." Sam sits down not taking any of this seriously. Then Josh joined the meeting and he tells him that Toby "wrote a concession speech."
"Of course, he wrote a concession speech. Why wouldn't he? What possible reason would he have for not to writing a concession speech?"
"The wrath from high atop the thing."
"He up and said we were gonna ---"
"No, you have to go outside turn around three times and curse."
"Spit."
"Spit and curse."
"Do everything. Go!"
"Go!" Getting it from both sides now, Sam gets up and flees to the freezing outdoors.
When he gets back, C.J. tells him, "You can't be too careful."
"I think you can," Sam mumbles.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Realistic

This is all about math. At this point Hillary can only win with big wins in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania or by stopping the blood loss, tying Obama for the rest of the campaign in delegates, and winning a floor fight at the convention to include Florida and Michigan's fake votes.

She wont drop out after tonight, but without huge victories tonight I am not sure how she will justify it.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

Vermont

I heard from a friend that O is up by 30 in exit polling in Vermont.

Vermont called for Obama....but not a surprise

The spread isn't a surprise either based on the exit polls......but then the win is based on exit polls. hehe

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

As much as I want NC to have

As much as I want NC to have a say, I really do think it's in the Party's best interests to get this thing over sooner rather than later.

Hillary's comments about McCain in Ohio cinched it for me. At this point, she's bloodying our likely nominee (the path to the nomination for Hillary looks murky at best) and diminishing our chances for victory in November.

It needs to be over.

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

Agreed

I can't remember where, but I heard someone ask, "Is there a scenario where Clinton wins the nomination without it being ugly?" She's not going to win 65-35 victories in the remaining states, so she's not going to close the delegate gap. She'd have to win it with superdelegates or cajolery in Michigan and Florida.

You do make a good point

With McCain now the official Rethug nominee, they are officially now in general election mode. Will our Democratic nominee be at a disadvantage if they don't move into general election mode until this summer?

I also like Betsy's idea of our votes making a difference here in NC.

BTW, thanks for the shoutout in the bulletin!

www.MoBetterChange.blogspot.com

Clearly.

Clearly, there has to be some concern that McCain has between now and August/September to coalesce his base and begin his outreach to independents.

But what I'm more concerned about...and what will start tomorrow when McCain visits the White House to secure Dubya's endorsement...is the fundraising.

Obama's fundraising machine is ridiculous right now (over 1 million donors, $50+ million in one month) and, assuming that he will forego public financing in the general, McCain's got months now to make up that gap.

Not to mention that if the FEC holds McCain to his pledge of public financing for the primary (which they should because he earned free ballot access by accepting matching funds), he's only got $5M to spend between now and the convention. Obama could be using what's left of his primary funds to build a base for the general and start hammering McCain early.

But no...

We're going to the convention.

Despite the fact that a fair nomination win by Clinton is improbable.

Great.

The longer this goes on, the worse it is for the Party.

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

On the other hand

The Obama campaign said that if the race was still going on at this point they were planning on putting organizers on the ground in North Carolina.

Its really hard to argue with a campaign that is going to hae a significant field presence in all 50 states by time this is finished.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

they've already got organizers on the ground

At least that's what it looks like from what I can see - and that's great. That's how it should be.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

You do make a good point

With McCain now the official Rethug nominee, they are officially now in general election mode. Will our Democratic nominee be at a disadvantage if they don't move into general election mode until this summer?

I also like Betsy's idea of our votes making a difference here in NC.

BTW, thanks for the shoutout in the bulletin!

www.MoBetterChange.blogspot.com

I hope it finishes tonight

I've been pissed off at both senators for their dirty politicking. They have, for the most part, been clean ("vote for me because I can do X, Y, Z"), but they've gotten too down in the muck for it to help either in the general election.

Obama seemed to start it, then Clinton ran away with it, and now they are both racing in the filth. Both should just grow up and behave like adults. Stop behaving like the little snots Lee Atwater would be proud of.

If Clinton does not have a fantastic showing today, she should concede, and let Obama work towards November. Stop the infighting, and work together to help the country.

Remember - the enemy is GW and his criminal cadre.

Be selfish if you want (even in jest). You'll get no respect from me.

OK - it appears Clinton did well enough last night to continue fighting. Cool - as they say, "the people have spoken." Now - FIGHT CLEANLY! No more darkening picture skin color... No more "3 AM phone call" commercials... (Sorry - without my morning coffee I can't recall a recent Clinton-smearing statement/commercial from Obama, though there have been some).

Play nice, play clean, DON'T GIVE THE GOP WEAPONS TO USE.

Ohio results trickling in

Veeery incomplete data, but here's what CNN has so far....there's even less at the Ohio SOS's site. Reported as Clinton/Obama ....

Geauga Co. 52% / 47%
Hancock - 55% / 43%
Lake Co. - 65% / 33%
Pickaway - 69% / 29%


Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

The tension Its driving me crazy!!!

Adaaame!!...Aaadaameee!!...Adaaaaaame!!!....Huh?....oh....Oh yea...wrong primary...Sorry...I think Hillery just won Ohio.

Its that I'm just so focused I guess!

Marshall Adame
2014 U.S. Congress Candidate NC-03

Ha! You're a trip, Marshall

It absolutely must be Adddaaaaammmmmeeeeeeeee! In May.....and then again in November.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Hi Marshall...

bradford
...Did you say you just won Ohio? I'm your press guy, I need to know these things. Seriously, though, I am terribly torn. I think the excitement of the presidential candidates campaigning in N.C. could be great for our candidates, all the way down the ticket. But I'm fearful that if Hill and Bar have much more time to beat each other up, they might actually turn off unaffiliateds who might vote for us. That could hurt not only the lower end of the ticket in November, but would also beneft McCain, who already appeals to many of those unaffialteds. At this point, I've got to confess I don't even have a clue what would be best for all of us.

bradford

me too

I want a voice on May 6 and I am still undecided. This whole thing is a math lesson. Before it's done we'll all be experts on all the states. Come on! this is fun! Turnout is awesome

The counties reporting in so far all seem to be

Northeastern Ohio counties.....and those have polled strong for Clinton. Don't let the early returns fool you.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

In a juicy ironic twist ...

Jeff Davis county in Texas is voting for Obama 47% to 40% with 16% of precincts reporting.

Talk about spinning in your grave .... :)

Person County Democrats

I actively oppose gerrymandering. Do you?

Oh well.....we won't get much more until after 9pm

I guess that would be 10pm our time. We might know Texas before we know Ohio.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

What?

Norah O'Donnell just said that the Ohio results were a "transformation" for HRC. Uh, hasn't she been ahead in the polls the whole time? How is this some kind of comeback?

Never listen to Noron O'Donnell

She's got rocks in her head...

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Of the counties reporting in Texas

100 are going for Clinton and 24 are going for Obama. Obama is winning the popular vote. County by county is important in Texas, though. I'm not sure when their caucuses will be over, but primary vote results are coming in now.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

From Marc Ambinder:

Obama Attorney Crashes Clinton Campaign Conference Call

On a Clinton campaign conference call to discuss reports of Obama-inspired voting irregularities in Texas, the second question belonged to Bob Bauer.

"Repeat that?" asked an incredulous -- and bemused -- Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director.

Bob Bauer, Barack Obama's chief counsel.

"How is this any different than the series of complaints registered against every caucus that you lose?"

Wolfson disputed that.

"I would ask you," he said to Bauer, "to join with us this evening to ensure that the serious problems that are ongoing this evening are addressed."

Bauer asked Wolfson, in turn, to "stop attacking the caucus process."

After some arguing about Nevada, Bauer ceded the floor to a reporter.

Oh Lord.

I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry.

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

Pfft

Brokaw just said that Obama is a "much stronger candidate" against McCain. Ya think?

Based on polls...

That seems to be true.

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

You bet

Not only is Obama stronger against McCain, he actually might help us down the ticket. If you're in a swing district (at the Congressional or State Leg. level), would you rather have HRC or Obama at the top of the ballot?

I'm as tired as other people with Obama fankids, but he has the potential (only potential) to construct a real progressive coalition. Plus, the contrast between him and McCain is just awesome.

In 2004

In 2004 statewide turnout was 64%. Democratic voters as a whole were at 65%.

African Americans turned out at 59%.

The real power of Obama's candidacy is not in getting an extra 5 points of turnout from African Americans. Its in getting those 5% to vote AND volunteer.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

Howard Dean

The Good Doctor starts us off on the right foot.

"John McCain is out of touch with the issues facing Americans each day. Instead of offering solutions to the high cost of health care, help for the middle class or ideas to create jobs, McCain offers 100 years in Iraq and more of the same Bush budgets that have heaped debt onto our children and damaged our economy. Instead of ending the influence of lobbyists in Washington, he's hired them to run his campaign. The closer voters look at the real McCain record, the more they will realize he cannot be trusted to deliver the change America wants."

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

Clinton wins Ohio

....quite handily despite polls showing Obama closing in. She's taken a very narrow lead in Texas. I haven't done the math on the Ohio delegate distribution....I'm too tired. We took some damage to our roof during the storms tonight. I can tarp it, but the wind would have done a number on the tarp as well since I had no way to clamp or weight it down. Oh well....the joys of home ownership.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Those numbers will close

I still expect Clinton to win it by a decent margin in the end, but a lot of Cleveland is still out.

Two things

First, I just read on Daily Kos (I think) that Obama took more delegates from OH than Clinton, at least at this point. But don't quote me on that.

Second, is it just me or does HRC more intentionally invoke the gender theme when her back's against the wall? She did it before NH, and now she seems to be bringing it up more often after Obama's string of wins. Maybe it has something to do with her reliance on a large gender gap. Just thinking.

power outage at 9:45 here

So we had no results until this morning! For some reason, we did not have batteries handy for a radio and I lost internet and couldn't stay online.

I checked in with my home town in East Texas, which has gone heavily for Republicans for awhile now. There were around 4000 votes for Clinton, 2200 for Obama, then around 400 each for McCain and Huckabee, with Huckabee slightly edging out McCain. I am probably related to more people than voted for McCain, and all my relatives except maybe one or two are Republicans there. I will add that Clinton hate was as strong there as anyplace I know, so this is clearly a case of crossover voting.

I do have a slight positive take, that it keeps NC exciting and will energize voters here. But it sure has been a long primary season, and my 8 year son is unclear who he is supposed to hate. (!)I try to keep my comments to a minimum around him, but he is competitive and likes things clearly defined, good guys, bad guys, etc.

I'm glad to see the outcome of last nights primary votes.

I am truly no fan of either Democratic candidate, however I do hope to have them coming to NC to woo the voters here in the near future.

I'm really beginning to question Senator Obama's game plan and his seeming lack of understanding what Democratic voters REALLY want in a candidate. Every time he gets any more detailed than Hope or Change, I end up wondering if he really beleives that reaching across the aisle is going to work just because he thinks he has the gift of bringing people together. I seriously doubt that with the Republicans we have in Congress. His dislike for getting out there and mixing it up with the media to get his detailed message out (right now his message is sound bites from campaign speeches) is also very uncomfortable for me. It is as though he is unable to really answer questions with concrete ideas.

As for Hillary, I still believe her to be a Clinton in all ways politically. She seems to always want to see which way the wind is blowing before making a solid decision, she is WAY too cozy with the corporate and lobbyist types and I especially do not like fear-mongering by any candidate, but even less from a Democratic candidate that should know better.

I may write in Snoopy in May (just kidding, but barely). ;-)

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!