PPP: Obama, Perdue lead in NC

PPP released its newest sets of numbers for the statewide races in the Democratic primary today.

Barack Obama has a small lead over Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards’ former supporters are going to the remaining Democratic candidates in equal numbers. Full results

Bev Perdue is pushing closer to 50% in the Democratic race for Governor. Full results

Kay Hagan is maintaining a double digit lead in the Senate primary, although the big winner is the undecideds. Full results.

Pat Smathers and Janet Cowell have one point leads in their races, while June Atkinson and Beth Wood have larger advantages in theirs. Full results

Sorry for the delay in posting these over here.


Hagan over Neal, really?

Kay Hagan is maintaining a double digit lead in the Senate primary, although the big winner is the undecideds. Full results.

How??? She's barely campaigning, and from what little I've seen, her heart's not in it.

Two reasons I think: -Most

Two reasons I think:

-Most people don't know the candidates so with one woman and four men running the woman is likely to have the advantage with all things being equal.

-Hagan is better known from all her years as an elected official.

It seems likely that if everyone saw both Neal and Hagan speak in person, Neal would run away with it. But of course that's not how it goes.

The LG numbers

Pat Smathers 11
Dan Besse 10
Walter Dalton 9
Hampton Dellinger 6

Any further analysis of this race, Tom?

Any sense of who IS paying attention to the LG candidates?

I think it's interesting

I think it's interesting that there are more undecideds in the LG race than, say, in the Auditor race. I think it may be that, like many folks at BlueNC, even the few people who actually are following the contest and do know the candidates are undecided because they are torn between multiple ones that they like.

There is a tendency to chalk up a high percentage of undecideds in a race to people not knowing anything about it and while that's mostly true I bet there are a good number of people answering our polls who are quite familiar with the dynamics of the LG race but really haven't made up their minds.

Beyond that candidates seem to be doing well in their natural bases of support- Smathers in WNC, Besse in the Triad, Dalton in the Charlotte area where he has been on the air in previous campaigns. Dellinger doesn't have that natural regional strength helping him at this point in the campaign since it's his first run.

I think it will probably be April and probably even late April before we see any real strong movement in this race, although certainly this month showed one of Dan's strongest performances in the poll and one of Dalton's weakest. It seems too small to be a real trend but I guess we'll see in the next few months!