Obama Leads In NC Poll

Survey USA, the polling group that's been the most accurate so far this primary season, has an exciting set of numbers if you're an Obama fan.

Barack Obama - 50%
Hillary Clinton - 40%

Males

Obama - 54%
Clinton - 36%

Females

Obama - 46%
Clinton - 44%

Under 50 Years Old

Obama - 56%
Clinton - 38%

Over 50 Years Old

Obama - 45%
Clinton - 43%

More great stats here.

Comments

Dare I say it?

Yes, we can!

Obama Delegate

I have signed up to be an Obama delegate. I think it will be interesting to go to the Dem. National Convention.

"jump in where you can and hang on"
Briscoe Darling to Sheriff Andy

Not much of a chance

From what i hear it's almost impossible to go to the national convention as a delegate, especially for a "common" volunteer. There's at least 100 candidates for every delegate position. But you might get lucky ;-)

My dad did it in 96.

It was one of the highlights of his life.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

In 2004 I think we had about 10 people vying for 6 delegate

slots in the 13th. Of course half of those people were just there to be a delegate. Hot shots who only mingled with the little people when they wanted something and haven't been seen at a district convention since. And, for the most part, they got our delegate slots.

I would say it's possible for just about anyone to go to Denver. It might take some campaigning ahead of time to let people know you are interested and have some qualifications - your democratic resume as it were.

lcloud - If at all convenient, Go for it!!

I am thinking hard about giving it a try myself.

The trick is in picking your candidate before the May primary.

Person County Democrats

I actively oppose gerrymandering. Do you?

Obama wins the Beltway.

Virgina, D.C., Maryland - all go to Obama.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Ok, I peeked.

The stats show three regions: Charlotte, Raleigh, South & Coast. It's interesting how much more strongly the "Raleigh" region skews for Obama.

-- ge

Besta é tu se você não viver nesse mundo
http://george.entenman.name

Besta é tu se você não viver nesse mundo
https://george.entenman.name

that's 4 regions, zabouti. :)

We'll have counting class starting at 9 over in the Math corner. :)

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

nope

They have "South and Coast" as the name of one region.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

oh.

nevermind.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

NC has 77 delegates

NC has 77 delegates apportioned by results in each of the 13 congressional districts (4th district has the most, 9) and 38 at-large pledged delegates apportioned by the total statewide vote. So if Obama wins 55-45, he will get 21 state-wide delegates and Clinton 17. However, depending on the results in each CD, Clinton could theoretically win more than Obama if it is as close as 55-45.

The actual delegates will be chosen at CD conventions in May and the at-large at the State convention in June. By the way, there is nothing legal to hold them to their pledge: they can go to Denver and vote for whoever they want, which is why the candidates have to be careful who they approve to run for delegate pledged to them.

There is also an "Uncommitted" choice and if that gets 15% or more in any CD and/or state-wide, the CD and state conventions will choose uncommitted delegates for those spots.

So....what you're saying

is that North Carolina is not only in play, but could be part of an effort to swing this thing one way or another regardless of the May primary. So, if a candidate really messes up or some bit of news comes out we didn't know.......then the convention could be quite unruly.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

yes, we will be in play

yes, we will be in play unless one drops out before then, which is unlikely unless Obama wins both TX and OH on 3/4. Obama AND Clinton headlining this year's JJ dinner on 4/26? Very possible.

We are definitely in play, unless...

Mathematically we will definitely be in play. What I see happen is that Clinton just gives up after the TX and OH primary if she doesn't get a very good result there. Barely winning would not be a good result. She's now betting everything on TX and OH, it's going to be all or nothing.
Of course, if she drops out, the race is over, we have our nominee and the NC primary will not play a role in finding our presidential nominee after all.

NC also has 19 unpledged

NC also has 19 unpledged "super delegates."

Many of these can be added to Edwards "swing"

He has something like 23 delegates from early elections, plus probably another 20 or 30 superdelegates. In the end 50 delegates could make a big difference.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Edwards won 26 delegates in

Edwards won 26 delegates in IA, NH and SC, but I believe he will lose his right to those in IA as they get to their county and state conventions. That will leave him with a only a dozen, but this year that could be huge. It appears most of the superdelegates pledged to him are now uncommitted and are up for grabs.

SUSA also had some good news for Jim ...

Neal & Hagan in statistical tie.

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks