WaPo rates NC the "swingiest" of swing states:

Former state senator and Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran Cal Cunningham is the Democrats’ nominee (despite Republican interference to boost another candidate). In the first three months of this year, he doubled Tillis’s fundraising hauls. Tillis has tried at points to display some independence from Trump, pushing a bill to prevent the firing of Robert S. Mueller III and opposing Trump’s method of paying for the border wall. But he embraced the wall and during impeachment, he was all-in for the president.

We don't call him Two-Faced Tillis for nothing. He has never been exceptionally popular among Republicans, but that OpEd he wrote had them sharpening the long knives. Let's see what Thommy said back then:

It is my responsibility to be a steward of the Article I branch, to preserve the separation of powers and to curb the kind of executive overreach that Congress has allowed to fester for the better part of the past century. I stood by that principle during the Obama administration, and I stand by it now.

Conservatives rightfully cried foul when President Barack Obama used executive action to completely bypass Congress and unilaterally provide deferred action to undocumented adults who had knowingly violated the nation’s immigration laws. Some prominent Republicans went so far as to proclaim that Obama was acting more like an “emperor” or “king” than a president.

There is no intellectual honesty in now turning around and arguing that there’s an imaginary asterisk attached to executive overreach — that it’s acceptable for my party but not thy party.

But as we all know, that self-righteous declaration withered quickly under conservative backlash. Tillis ended up supporting Trump in that vote, which contributed greatly to Trump's out-of-control behavior since then:

“A lot has changed over the last three weeks,” Tillis maintained. “A discussion with the vice president, a number of senior administration officials, a lot of collaboration with my colleague from Utah [Sen. Mike Lee] that’s a serious discussion about changing the National Emergencies Act in a way that will have Congress speak on emergency actions in the future . . . As late as today the president makes a statement that he’s willing to work with us.”

He maintained after the vote that this was not because he was worried about a primary challenge.

Another promise not kept. Over a year later and nothing has been done to modify the National Emergencies Act, and Trump keeps stealing money from the military.

We can't afford Thom Tillis.