NC-08, Robin Hayes: Des-per-a-a-tion

It's des-per-a-tion.
It's des-per-a-a-tion.
He's making them sweat.
He's making their tighty whities wet.

What a joke. The latest poll conducted by one of Robin Hayes' contributors and the preferred partisan Republican pollster for today's hip and stylish Washington "in" crowd, says something completely different from any poll conducted in the district so far this election cycle. Mind you, I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, just that they don't match up with anything else we've seen recently. (PDF)

It must be that special way they have of asking questions over at Public Opinion Strategies. For example, this question found in a discarded script: Would you feel favorably or unfavorably about the Democratic candidate if you found out he/she had committed murder/adultery or had unpaid parking tickets or low SAT scores? (I made this question up....but I'm just sayin'.........)

Please follow below the fold...

Ahh, yes, the always reliable push poll. They are the perennial favorite of many Republican pollsters. Of course, when Robin Hayes has already lied in every ad piece released on television, radio or through the mail, what's a little lie over the phone? You've got to hand it to them. When they lie, they make sure they use every medium available.

But, maybe I've been hasty in dismissing this poll. Let's take a close look at the methodology, questions and results.

No information released other than it was a "scientific" survey of 400 people with a margin of error of 4.9%

No questions released.

You can find the results by clicking here. It's what a typical release looks like when it's your own internal poll and you need to manipulate the numbers a bit to say what you want. The last thing you do is let reporters see your data.

It doesn't take any amount of skill or talent to pull a poll out of your hind side. Look how quickly and easily I, The Southern Dem, poll people from several different states. My roving pollster Working for Change has polled people in Virginia, the Washington DC area, West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania this very night. We can report that 100% of those polled said they would vote for Larry Kissell if given the chance and 100% polled said that Robin Hayes is a liar. As the roving pollster drove through each state I received an update on our poll. The numbers did not shift. Of course WFC and her mother probably got tired of asking each other the same questions over and over again as they drove from state to state. However..............I get... my point.

If we can't examine methodology and questions to give us a better feel for the validity of the poll, then we have to look at the company itself. This is what I can find from SourceWatch:

In 2001, it was charged with violating Virginia's polling disclosure laws, and it has also been accused of using push polls to influence elections.

One of those accusations occurred as recently as a few days ago up in Maryland. The article can be found at The Baltimore Sun.

I also find in my investigation that all of the four principals of POS who are listed at SourceWatch - Glenn Bolger, William D. McInturff, Neil S. Newhouse and Gene Ulm - have given generously to Republicans and a couple have given to TOMPAC, Together for Our Majority Political Action Committee. This is the leadership pack for embattled RNCC leader Tom Reynolds. Yes, the Tom Reynolds who helped shelter Mark Foley, a gay Republican congressman who groomed 16 year old male pages for future.....ah service to...ah...their country. Yes, the very same Tom Reynolds who has financed Robin Hayes to the tune of at least $30,000 over the last 3 cycles through his TOMPAC and the very same Mark Foley who was responsible for "whipping" up all those votes for CAFTA.

Are you getting a picture of that tangled GOP web they have going there in Washington? First you have a polling company with four principals who are Republicans and between them give generously to Tom Reynolds' PAC. Then you have Tom Reynolds as chair of the RNCC - the committee charged with helping Republicans get elected to congress who benefits from polling that shows his Republicans leading. He also benefits from those push polls - polls that are actually marketing tools used to sway voters, not gather data. Then you see Tom Reynolds giving money to his loyal Republican followers like Robin Hayes. Reynolds gives the max each cycle to keep Hayes in his fold. Hayes turns around and hires the polling firm that gives so generously to Tom Reynolds' PAC. In return, Hayes gets the numbers he wants to see.

It's just one big Republican circle jerk up in Washington.

I can imagine the Hayes camp celebration. It's probably quite a sight over there. I congratulate you on your little poll, even if the numbers are a bit suspect.

I'm sure you'll pardon the rest of us for not joining in your celebration. You see, while you are reaching in to your bottomless bag of filth to win this election there were ten American servicemen and women killed in Iraq yesterday. That's the highest number killed in one day in the past ten months. It's a reason to mourn, not to celebrate. This war that Hayes has pledged his undying support for is not a cause for jubilation.

As you celebrate your poll, another textile mill in Concord, NC has announced that it is closing and 235 of our fellow citizens face uncertain futures. The cause? This new "global trade environment" that was bolstered by Robin Hayes' vote for CAFTA. You know, the trade bill he promised vehemently to vote against. Right, right....he sold out his constituents for trade protections with China.

China, yes, China. The very country that we are relying on to help manage the volatile situation in North Korea. Do you honestly think we are going to be able to play hard and heavy on trade with China when we are relying on them to support trade sanctions against North Korea, their traditional ally? China is a major power broker in this very tenuous situation with North Korea. Do you really think we're going to play it tough with them on fabric imports when they are busy dealing with a nuclear North Korea?

This is a serious world we live in Congressman Hayes. You and your campaign staff can busy yourselves with games and silly attack ads. You can continue banking on your belief that your constituents are too stupid to see through your attacks. The fact is, many of them are not better off than they were in 1998 when you took office. They live every day with the threat of those things we commoners have to deal with - job loss, healthcare bills, a loved one shipping off to Iraq or a late payment on their car. They aren't stupid, Congressman. Many of them see you for what you are - a privileged wealthy man whose sense of entitlement has blinded him to the real concerns of his contituents. They see a man more concerned with protecting his own $55 million than protecting the people who are happy to have $55.00.

I have a suspicion that not many of these people are represented in your poll numbers, Congressman Hayes.


I's can't lurk no more!

Amen! I'm two payments late and would like to have $5 in my pocket, not to mention $55! Hayes is a slimeball.

I'm Bloo through and through.

I'm Bloo through and through.

Yay! A Delurker

Welcome to BlueNC. Glad you're here. Are you in the district or in another? I'm actually in Mel Watt's, but can walk to Kissell's district.

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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.


So when is this going up on DKOS? I know you are itching for yet another Reccomended diary.

"Keep the Faith"

I HEART lurkers.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.

Actually, we're holding

I think there might be another independent poll coming out. I have reports of phone calls being out there in the field. I want to see if that materializes in the next day or so.

Things are busy out there. It was more important to get it out in NC. Oh, and it looks like the N&O accepted the numbers without question. Kinda funny.

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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.


I cant find the N&O reporting on it. Im sure those on this site could put together a few nasty LTEs about push polling pretty quick.

The fact that this poll was reported at all is annoying me. Anyone who reads the press release should know its bull.

"Keep the Faith"

Excellent post

Southern Dem. GOP circle jerk in DC, indeed.

Conscious evolution, it's what turns me on. There's got to be a difference between right and wrong.-DTB

Let us know

PeopleForEdwards-Networkin' It

if you post this on dKos so we can come recommend.

nan/nannyboz on dKos

Great post!

They have reason to be desperate. Despite the fact Hayes is an incumbent and loaded, it's Kissell that has the support of the People. Kissell is as "grassroots as grassroots gets!"

For anyone who may have missed this: Takin' Our Country Back was featured on an Open Thread yesterday on DKos! I read it here first. ;)


TOMPAC gave $2,500 to Vernon Robinson in July. ($5,000 to Hayes in June)

Nice research, SD

I knew that poll looked mighty suspicious.

I'm waiting for Anglico

to weigh in on the poll. So, whatdaya say, A?

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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

You did such a great job

all that's left for me to say is



A, You crack me up

I knew when they didn't release the questions that it sucked. I learned that from you. :)

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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

More Breaking Poll Results

My sample group has increased in size by 200% in the last 24 hours. I'm happy to report the following poll results:

In eastern PA:

100% of survey respondents agree that Robin Hayes Hates Puppies.
66% of respondents report strong negative opinion of Hayes
33% of respondents report they trust the opinion of the other 66%

In Woodstock, NY:

100% of respondents agree that all Republicans are evil, therefore Robin Hayes must go.
80% of respondents want to legalize marijuana*
20% of respondents think marijuana is already legal*
* I didn't actually ask this question...but the locals in Woodstock insisted I report this information

In Upstate, NY:

75% of yards with campaign signs support Hillary Clinton for reelection
100% of yards with signs about the war say "Support the troops...bring them home now"
80% of survey respondents would vote for Larry Kissell if the election were held today (and they lived in NC08)
20% of survey respondents would vote for Larry Kissell if they were old enough to vote (Happy 5th Birthday, Gracie!)

I'll keep you posted of more breaking poll results as they become available!

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

Utility Poll

I'd ask you your opinion on using these results but that would increase my sample group beyond the margin of error.

heh heh heh

You're sooo funny :)

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It's wonderful to feel so good about the upcoming elections, thank you SD and WFC, you make my day!

No matter that patriotism is too often the refuge of scoundrels. Dissent, rebellion, and all-around hell-raising remain the true duty of patriots.