Iowa Caucus Open Thread

Many of the news shows I'm watching are saying the Democratic field is too close to call in Iowa. A few are concentrating only on Obama and Clinton. The print media and blogs were also all over the place today with their coverage.

I think Edwards wins Iowa. In the Washington Post this morning Dana Milbank completely ignored John Edwards, but he said something that made me think.

On Thursday night, America will finally have an answer to the question: Is Obama another Howard Dean, or can he win the nomination? Like Dean, he has challenged the Democratic establishment with a coalition of students and political independents. His candidacy, like Dean's, will collapse if they don't show up.

It is, in other words, a battle between the passion and the machine, between Hillary Clinton's establishment support and the superior enthusiasm of Obama's supporters.

The problem for Dana is that while Clinton might be the establishment candidate, she doesn't have the machine behind her in Iowa. John Edwards is the man with the well-oiled political operation in Iowa.

This was illustrated for us in a piece submitted by Jim Morrill of the Charlotte Observer and Rob Christensen of the Raleigh News & Observer.

But if Edwards is to win tonight's Iowa caucuses it will be because of the little-known soldiers in Edwards' army -- volunteers such as Tracy Hatfield, Julie Brown and Lauri Lumm-Usher.

Those three -- and an estimated 2,000 to 3,000 like them -- have spent much of the past year doing the unglamorous work of building a political organization for Edwards. They have given up weekends, holidays and evenings to work the phones and go door-to-door to build support.

The former N.C. senator has been building his Iowa organization for at least five years -- far longer than his Democratic rivals. Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois are regarded as having the strongest Democratic organizations in the state.

The lifeblood of all the presidential organizations in Iowa are the precinct captains. The Edwards campaign says it has identified and trained captains for 95 percent of the 1,781 precincts. Most precincts have two or three captains.

For months, the captains have been lining up votes. Tonight, they will make one last pitch, trying to persuade the undecided and the supporters of those candidates who fail to muster the minimum 15 percent support needed to qualify under the caucus system to vote for Edwards.

Edwards ran away with the DailyKos straw poll and honestly, I would pick him to win Iowa even if I thought he wouldn't. (I also always pick the Heels to win the national championship.)

Here are my picks:

Edwards 31%
Obama 27%
Clinton 24%

I don't care about the Republicans, so not going to waste my time. Enjoy the pictures and if you have one of yourself posing with a presidential canidate, please email it to me so I can add it to the pile.

My girls with the next president of the United States.

Sam and a bunch of people I don't recognize. Well...not really. I recognize Duncan Hunter. :)










Happy Iowa Caucus Day Y'all

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Entrance polls so far show a tight race

between Obama and Clinton and Edwards behind.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

2% of precincts reporting

42% Edwards,
33% Clinton
25% Obama

It's very, very early. I imagine the larger precincts with record turnout will come in much later and I think those sway for Obama.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

5% reporting in

36% Edwards
31% Clinton
26% Obama
2% Biden

This is close

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

10% reporting in

34% Edwards
32% Clinton
31% Obama
2% Richardson

Huckabee leading Reps with 2% reporting in

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

the iowa caucus, paired with

the iowa caucus, paired with keith olbermann. does a day get any better?

17%

34% Edwards
32% Clinton
31% Obama
2% Richardson

Kos seems to think that with Clinton and Obama running strong in rural precincts it bodes ill for JRE.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Looking at the exit polls, I

Looking at the exit polls, I think Obama is going to pull this thing out. Edwards has done well in he Western part of the state which is early to report, but over time, I think you will see Obama slowly gain.

betsy, thank you very much

betsy, thank you very much for providing us with such up to date numbers. here's to a strong obama/edwards showing.

p.s.: my apologies for that double post. something went horribly awry, and i have absolutely no idea how to make one of them disappear.

Don't worry, I took care of it. :)



Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Hope For Edwards

Of course, those exit polls don't include second choice voters. Edwards may benefit greatly from those second choice voters. I guess I want to put a little caveat on my last statement.

They just showed one rural county

where there were six second chance votes and four went to Edwards, two to Obama.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

23%....you getting tired of this yet?

It's pretty much a three way tie

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

i try to only watch cnn when

i try to only watch cnn when jack cafferty loses it on repugs. cafferty used to be a local news anchor on WPIX back in nyc, and i adore that man. hes such a liberal grouch.

Cafferty

a curmudgeon's curmudgeon. I love him.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

i can always rely on you for

i can always rely on you for some late night bluenc action. eek, that sounded dirty.

So

Allah/Shiva/Yahweh hath spoken ... go figure, huh.

So, so, so close

486 of 1,781 districts reporting

Edwards 32.53
Obama 32.47
Clinton 32.25
Richardson 1.85
Biden 0.76
Dodd 0.10
Uncommitted 0.03



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I can't take my eyes off of it

I almost wish you'd kept it to yourself. :)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I never thought

I'd get addicted to the "refresh" ticker at this Iowa Dem. Party site:
http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/
But it's like watching the returns flash on the screen at the courthouse on election day...

NYT

updated 8:59 PM ET
ELECTION RESULTS

Iowa

Democrats Vote %
Edwards 159

33%

Obama 159 33   
Clinton 157 32   
Richardson 9 2   
Biden 4 1   
Dodd 0 0   
Others 0

0   

28% reporting

Republicans Vote %
Huckabee 4,220 36%
Romney 2,762 23   
Thompson 1,711 14   
McCain 1,386 12   
Paul 1,300 11   
Giuliani 386 3   
Others 53 0   
15% reporting

I love this!!! I get to

I love this!!! I get to watch this all unfold again next Tuesday! I still think that Obama is going to pull away and win by three to four points over Clinton in second place.

WaPo update

Iowa Democratic Caucuses
Candidate %
Barack Obama 33
John Edwards 32
Hillary Clinton 32
Other 3
Precincts: 42% | Updated: 9:05 PM ET | Source: AP

Iowa Republican Caucuses
Candidate %
Mike Huckabee 35
Mitt Romney 24
Fred Thompson 14
Other 27
Precincts: 25% | Updated: 9:05 PM ET | Source: AP

Huckabee's win concerns me.

Huckabee's win concerns me. Does this put in place the situation where McCain can walk away with the election in New Hampshire? He is still the strongest Republican candidate in the race and if Romney had been able to beat him in New Hampshire, I think he would have been done. With Romney losing Iowa by possibly double digits, does this end the Romney campaign and hand New Hampshire and possibly Michigan to McCain?

That said, if Huckabee could

That said, if Huckabee could pull the nomination out, I would love the chance to rough him up in the general,

Obama is edging away

I imagine there will be a tiny bit of adjustment later, but it's still fairly close right now.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

WaPo 9:45

Iowa Democratic Caucuses
Candidate %
Barack Obama 37
John Edwards 30
Hillary Clinton 30
Other 3
Precincts: 86% | Updated: 9:45 PM ET | Source: AP

Iowa Republican Caucuses
Candidate %
Mike Huckabee 34
Mitt Romney 25
Fred Thompson 14
Other 28
Precincts: 67% | Updated: 9:45 PM ET | Source: AP

Update 1
Update 2
Update 3
Update 4
Update 5
Update 6

Got to be Obama

37% with 84% reporting

Hillary Third?

Could Hillary finish third and how badly does this hurt her campaign?

Edwards!

He is holding his own

"jump in where you can and hang on"
Briscoe Darling to Sheriff Andy

And they said he was "done". Hah!

John Edwards is still very much in the race for the Presidency, even without the help of any of the 2nd tier candidates' endorsements.

So it begins. :)

OBAMA WINS!!!!

Obama is on his way to winning. How much of a bounce does he get in New Hampshire and where then is Hillary Clinton's firewall?

I think a lot of it relies

I think a lot of it relies on Edwards taking second in Iowa. That throws the somewhat long time poll frontrunner (Clinton) into some sort of underdog figure, which seems like it may disrupt some of her momentum. But alas, who knows.

9:30pm CNN

predicts Senator Obama wins Iowa!

Clinton "spokesperson" David Broder

sez Edwards is done......but a possible 3rd place finish for Clinton doesn't mean anything bad.

Broder is such a tool.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Clinton

third? How can this be?

I am loving this. Even if it IS by such a small margin.

How will she handle when folks ask her how does it feel to be in 3rd in Iowa. I do not want to hear that Bill did not win a state until GA. She is not Bill.

Bidan, Richardson, Dodd are done. With that, Hillary finished last in Iowa of the folks that matter.

Broder is no spokesperson for the Clintons

David Broder has written many very critical columns about the Clintons. He was no fan of Bill's, nor of Hillary's.

He's not a shill of any candidate. If he were, he would not be able to survive in his job for so long.

I blog on all sorts of topics at www.jimbuie.net

I blog on all sorts of topics at www.jimbuie.net

Jim, you might not have heard the same Broder I did

last night and yes, he's written plenty of negative stuff about the Clintons. If you notice, the word spokesperson is in quotes. That's my way of criticizing what he said. It is idiotic to think that a third place finish for Hillary Clinton didn't hurt her at all and a second place finish for Edwards meant he was completely washed up. That's basically what Broder said...wait! That's exactly what Broder said. I think Broder was completely wrong and so did most of the other analysts because I don't recall any of them agreeing with him. I never said he was a shill, but he certainly seemed to have an agenda by putting out a statement that made absolutely no sense whatsoever. He came across as a Clinton "spokesperson."



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Obama In New Hampshire

Who gets second place and does it matter? If Edwards finishes second Clinton's campaign has a major setback. However, if Edwards finishes third, I think the Edwards campaign is pretty in deep trouble. My guess is that Edwards voters in New Hampshire will begin shopping for a new candidate. My guess also is that these voters will favor Obama over Clinton. In either case, I see a good chance for another Obama victory in New Hampshire.

Here's the difference between a $400 haircut

and a $12, five minute, it's-almost-time-for-lunch rendezvous with a constantly-moving chair at Great Scalps:

Go John, Go!

Edwards outspent 6:1

And he comes in second. Bill Clinton came in second in Iowa and he wound up preznit.

:)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

To Be Fair

I said something like that to a friend of mine and was reminded:

1. That doesn't count 527 spending on Edwards' behalf by union groups.
2. Huckabee got outspent 16:1 (or something like that) and won.

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There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracts. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

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There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

So, nobody else got 527 money?

I know they don't get the money in their coffers.....

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Is anyone watching

Is anyone watching Huckabee's speech?

I hope people understand now why I like him...and why I hope he won't be the Republican nominee for President.

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There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracts. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

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There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

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