Hillary's Negative Coattails in NC

Here's what scares me most about Hillary Clinton.

Let's say she wins the Democratic nomination. Let's even assume that she could win the general election (probably by carrying my home state of Ohio.)

What is her impact on our elections in North Carolina?

I'm afraid that she would have negative coattails that could have disastrous results for down-ticket races in our great state.

My guess is that in North Carolina, a Hillary lead Democratic ticket could spur in an increase in turnout among right-wingers. If we have close races for Governor or council of state offices, this could tip the race in favor of Republican candidates. We might lose one chamber of the legislature. Even local elections could be impacted.

What do you think? Will Hillary hurt our chances? Would an Obama ticket be better or worse? What about a Clinton-Obama ticket?

If Hillary Clinton becomes our next president, but Republicans win the Governor's Mansion and one chamber of the legislature... Is North Carolina better off or worse?

Comments

I've been saying this for a long time....

All you need to do is just a little research and you'll see that Hillary as a candidate might be detrimental to a Democratically controlled state of North Carolina.
If Hillary is our candidate, I'm going to concentrate my efforts on our local candidates because, mark My words, they will need all the help they can get.
Republicans are salivating at the prospect of running against Hillary because they know it's the only chance they have at winning the election.
I've been told over and over by very moderate Republicans I know that Clinton would be the best GOTV machine the GOP can wish for and for once, they are right.

It comes down to very simple math. Hillary has the worst negative ratings of any candidate, Republican or Democrat. You have 45% of the population already saying they would never vote for her. At the same time Obama has proven over and over again that he attracts the most independent and new, young voters. He even has a few Republicans voting for him.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out which Democrat has the best chance at winning in November.

NC Voters Are a Bit More Complex Than That

At the same time, we have continued to vote for a Republican for President, but then most of the Democrats further down the ticket do fine. Look at our state currently, it is red for President, but that's pretty much it.

Don't forget that we pull one lever (or push one button or whatever) for President and another for everyone else. It's completely possible that NC voters avoid whomever the Dems nominate for President and still vote for the Dem nominees state-wide. My proof is simple: 2004, 2000, 1996...

I'd argue that avoiding a candidate for fear of other races is a bit short-sighted.

short-sighted

I'd argue that avoiding a candidate for fear of other races is a bit short-sighted.

Oh, I agree and I'm certainly not avoiding Hillary just because I think she'll make things harder for Democrats down the ticket.
It's just one more reason to add to a whole pile of other ones I have, but those are not what this thread was about.

This is true but:

Look at our state currently, it is red for President, but that's pretty much it.

The Republican's have gained two seats on the Council of State, taken Edwards' seat back, and the State House was split even (really would have been Rep controlled but for the corruption) in the time-frame you're talking about. There's reason for concern.

Research . . .

I'm going to have to see the research before I'll assume that Clinton would be the disaster everyone here thinks she'll be - or at least that her coattails would be smaller than Obama's. I'm not saying it isn't possible. But I'd need to see some NC-specific polling before I made that assumption.

At the same time, though, I agree with what folks have said downthread about local issues being key. With the Building Victory program and a stronger state party, it's conceivable that we could see "reverse coattails" - local efforts aimed at local candidates boosting vote totals all the way up the ticket.

Just ask Bev

... if she's looking forward to having her face morphed into Hillary's 55 times a day.

"85% of Republicans are Democrats who don't know what's going on." -Robert Kennedy, Jr.

"Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." -Voltaire

It'll happen

Agreed. I can totally see this happening. The GOP wouldn't hesitate for a second to run ads like that.

I think they might hesitate

I think even the GOP knows that Beverly Perdue is not perceived as anything like Hillary Clinton. If they were to try to make comparisons, I think it would backfire HARD against them, both from women who are undecided and from women in their own party.

It would be so purely a "you want a woman running the oval office?" kind of ad that it would wind up hurting them. But it would certainly attract national attention.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing
-Edmund Burke

I wonder what effect....

having three women on the ballot would have for Democrats?

Clinton
Perdue
Hagan

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

I don't have a problem with women on the ballot

in fact, that's one of the things I love to see. But in this case, I'm leaning towards Obama, I don't know about the governor's race, and I am definitely supporting Jim Neal.

It almost makes me feel like I'm disloyal to my gender, thanks to MSM folks trying to imply that women vote as a bloc.

I personally believe that Clinton would have a bad effect at the top of the ticket. However, if Obama is at the top of the ticket, Perdue could be a great draw for women who want to see women in higher office. I think it would help Hagan (if she gets the nomination) because Obama will drive Democratic turn out we haven't seen in years.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Indeed

It almost makes me feel like I'm disloyal to my gender, thanks to MSM folks trying to imply that women vote as a bloc.

I know what you mean... As a woman, I really really wanted to like Mrs. Clinton as a candidate, but I just couldn't do it. Until he got out of the race, I was waffling between Edwards and Obama.

That said, I also don't really understand the rabid Clinton-hate that follows her like a thundercloud. I'll vote for her if she ends up being the party's nominee, unlike other friends of mine who've flat-out said they'll vote for McCain, or stay home if she gets the nod (and I don't understand that, either).

As of now, I'm still officially undecided on Moore vs. Perdue, and y'all know I'm a volunteer for Jim Neal, so no way am I voting for Hagan in the primary. ;)

how this feminist got over that "electing women" thing

I lived in London when Margaret Thatcher came into power. I read of feminists there who voted for her so their daughters could see a woman as prime minister. I realized that I could not do that, because to elect a woman who does not help women, or who opposes my issues, is simply not the right person. (Of course I couldn't vote anyway, but it clarified the issue for me, since I did not have to think about electing a woman prez. then.)

I am still a feminist, and want to support candidates who will not put my son in another foolish and illegal war.I am mostly undecided on all the races, except of course I am also backing Jim Neal, whose views reflect my own.(And by the way, Mrs. Hagan, stealing other people's jokes for your campaign, well, it's tacky. Really. And it makes some of us wonder what else you take credit for that isn't yours to begin with. Just trying to set a good example for my son, who is young and does not like to see adults get away with things he is forbidden to do, like crib off someone else's homework.)

Elizabeth Dole

If Margaret Thatcher and Elizabeth Dole arent enough to convince someone to look at issues instead of gender, nothing will be.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

You got it

Women like Elizabeth Dole and Anne Coulter have convinced me that just because we share plumbing, doesn't mean we share anything else.

My friend Alex in Kenya just called

he is safe for the time being . . .

and he is hoping Barack Obama becomes our next president.

Kenya

I've been keeping up with the situation in Kenya through various news source and a blog called The Vigilante Journalist.

I've not-so-secretly hoped that Obama would find time in his campaign schedule to go there and help resolve the tension, but the calendar, unfortunately, doesn't make that too feasible.

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

He should.

He could have left at midnight last night on a private jet and been there for a lunchtime meeting, then back by tonight. It would be great press for him.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

glad he is safe/our little worries

Since my husband is an "Africa hand" I try to follow the news there. China has been having its own "winter from hell" with the added difficulty of it happening before the Lunar New Year. It is common now in China for adults to work in the cities, only returning to their hometowns and CHILDREN(being raised by grandparents)once a year. So the people who are stuck by the tens of thousands in train stations and in cities where there has been NO electricity for two weeks in freezing temps - well, it is one of those natural disasters that in another country would cause an immediate vote of "no confidence" in the government. My son's old orphanage is safe and sound, but in some places they are dealing with scarce supplies at triple the price.

Keep us posted on your friend, Anglico. It is somehow comforting to know that someone is safe and well for now.

Either one is acceptable..

Without JE in the run, I'm not excited by either "corporate" candidate. But I believe both of them will have huge blocs of votes once it is decided that McCain is the opponent. If HRC is the pick, she will go with a big majority female vote, and Obama will have a huge black vote.(maybe 90%)Think about the 'war' candidate, and there won't be much choice for the independents, which will be the deciding factor in the end.

Clinton/Obama

My wife and I were discussing it this morning.

  1. We've already lost the bigot vote, all we have left are "them" candidates.
  2. Clinton pulls in women, especially older women.
  3. Obama pulls in young voters and excites an important part of our base.
  4. Clinton is strong among latino voters, pulling another group away from Republicans

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Well

1. Agreed...though I've always said that people not willing to vote for a woman or a black man for President probably weren't going to vote for a Democrat anyway.

2. True.

3. True, but if he's on a ticket with Clinton--after the repudiation that he's made about her brand of politics and her ties to special interest--I think that dampens the excitement of young people (and independents) about is candidacy.

4. Generally speaking, Latinos don't vote Republican, unless they're Cuban (though Cubans would say they're not Latino). Bush got a disproportionate number of Latino votes because he was the governor of Texas and successfully exploited religious differences in his favor. Does anyone imagine that McCain, the leader of immigration reform among Republicans and the Senator from Arizona, won't achieve the same success (roughly 40 percent)? If he comes close to that (and consolidates the Republican base), I'm not sure how Hillary wins.

There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

The toughest question

I'm enjoying all the comments. But, I think the toughest question is...

Would North Carolina be better or worse off with a Democratic President but a Republican Governor and legislature (or split legislature)?

Personally, I would rather lose the presidency than lose locally. I think that over the next four years there are going to be some very important issues decided at the state level - tax issues, environmental issues, education policy, and rural issues to name a few.

On the other hand, there's the war, economy, immigration... It would sure be nice to have friendly leadership at the top.

I think it would take one heck of a firestorm....

For a Republican to win the Governorship, much less win back either side of the legislature. Even in 1994 that would have been quite a feat, yet right now we sit in the midst of an unpopular war with a recession crashing over us. No, NC Democrats will win back the seats they hold. I think the only question is about new seats.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

I think that I am going to agree with this...

although my handle on the NC political situation is not as firm as most here. Looking at numbers and the over all situation, I think that this is going to be a fairly good year for Dems not only across the state, but also across the nation. I spent a large chunk of last night looking at all this info while I was waiting for returns...but I think it is a good question to think about and to discuss.

CM

The Great appear great because we are on our knees – Let Us Rise!
-- “Big Jim” Larkin

The Great appear great because we are on our knees – Let Us Rise!
-- “Big Jim” Larkin

Firestorm

I agree that it would take a firestorm, as you put, it for Republicans to win the governorship or legislature, but I'm also convinced that that firestorm has a name and it's Hillary.
I know a lot of local republicans and they're pretty depressed about their prospects, but the only ray of hope they see is Hillary being our presidential nominee.
Clinton will be the biggest GOTV machine the GOP can wish for.
The hatred for her is so deep and so vast that her candidacy would pull out republicans in droves, not so much to vote for their candidate but simply to vote against her.
While I don't understand where all that hatred comes from and I certainly don't agree with it, it's a matter of fact. It has been there for 15 years or more and it's not going away anytime soon.

People come out to vote for the top of the ticket and a lot of them vote straight party ticket after that.
I'm not saying that a Hillary candidacy guarantees a Republican hold on the State of NC, but I strongly believe they would have a much bigger chance.

Finally, I would love to see a woman in the White House, but unfortunately I can't give Obama a sex change.
Voting for a candidate simply because she's a woman makes as much sense as voting for a candidate just because he's black.

I think much of the party establishment

Would tell you that the Senate is legitimately up for grabs. We are probably safe in the House, but we won some districts in the Senate last time that we will have trouble holding onto, and we are losing some old warhorses, including Dalton, in areas of the state where it should at least on paper be difficult for a Democrat to win.

We will need the kind of turnout we got in 2006, but larger, with an equally demoralized GOP. That's my problem with Clinton as the nominee. She will not demoralize the Republican base. In fact, she'll rev them up. McCain would get support from the far right against Hillary.

That is more a reflection on them than on her, and it is frankly unfair to her, but it is reality.

"85% of Republicans are Democrats who don't know what's going on." -Robert Kennedy, Jr.

"Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." -Voltaire

Even if we lost all of the Senate seats

in districts that lean Republican, we'd still have a 25/25 split. That won't happen. But the closer it gets, the more important that Lt. Gov. seat is.

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

Regardless of who ends up

with the Dem nomination for President, we have to work from the assumption that a Presidential race will bring out the red vote, regardless of whatever steps the Republican party takes.

Personally, I would rather lose the presidency than lose locally.

Pushing local issues and local/state Dem candidates may be the key to flipping N.C. to a blue state. It has to happen in churches and grocery stores and back ards, but I believe our state is ready for change.

The state party has put up with this since 1972

I am 41, in my lifetime the nation party has carried this state once, 1976. 1972 was the worst in my opinion when the George McGovern was the nominee, 1984 was not much better. In 2004 John Kerry gave us little to ralley around but the NC Democrats did well. If the state Bev Purdue has won office in 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 1994 to boot, I think she has learned to distance her self from the national party. And I think either Sen Clinton or Sen Obama will recieve about 42 percent of the vote here. Yes I long for the day when the national party will run someone who is in more conservative in thier views and more in touch with our values, such as Gene Taylor, Mark Pryor, or even our own Heath Shuler, to put it as Gov Easley said some one we can be proud to run with instead of ashamed to be seen with, but for now I do not see that day.

Mark Pryor?

Please no.

If torture is one of "our values," then I don't want a candidate that supports those values.

"85% of Republicans are Democrats who don't know what's going on." -Robert Kennedy, Jr.

"Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." -Voltaire

TOO MANY SACRIFICES HAVE BEEN MADE

Too many sacrifices have been made for good men and women to sit idly by and allow our most basic human rights to be auctioned off to the highest bidder. Come out to HKoJ on Saturday in Raleigh at 11:00 am, register for Constructing Victory Campaign before you go, make sure you vote and get at least 75 others to vote in the 2008 election.

Hillary Will Lose

If Hillary is the Democratic nominee she will lose the general election to John McCain, who is unquestionably going to be the Republican nominee after yesterday. Only Barack Obama can beat John McCain, and it will still be a close election.

Carolina Politics Online

I feel so much better now

I was worried. But if CP says it, it must be untrue...

"85% of Republicans are Democrats who don't know what's going on." -Robert Kennedy, Jr.

"Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." -Voltaire

HA~

Oh hell you said it first!

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing
-Edmund Burke

I dunno....

This is from someone who you'd think would know a lot about losers.

Granted, but

CP's credibility is such that I'd be inclined to question the theory of gravity if he were to vouch for it.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing
-Edmund Burke

Well, it is

just a theory. Gravity, that is.

John McCain, however seems to be a fantasy made up in the minds of moderate and conservative Democrats. He needs to "straight-talk" answer on e question:

What's he going to do about Iraq?

The old military people who were supporting Edwards and who want our troops to come home tell me they like McCain because they tell me,

"McCain will bring our kids home."

Problem is, McCain has flatly said he will not bring them home. In response to W's projection that American troops may be in Iraq for 50 years, McCain suggested they'll be there for 100 years and he'd be fine with that.

"They took all the trees and put them in a tree museum Then they charged the people a dollar 'n a half just to see 'em. Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got till it's gone? They paved paradise and put up a parking lot."

That's because they're not paying attention.

The old military people who were supporting Edwards and who want our troops to come home tell me they like McCain because they tell me,

People assume that since he was a POW for so many years, plus the fact that he's been critical of the administration's torture policies, that he would bring the war to a close.

But it's actually the exact opposite, and anybody who's listened to him speak for more than a few seconds knows this. He wants to send a LOT more troops into Iraq and prosecute the war more vigorously, so anybody who wants the war to end would be foolish to vote for McCain.

Rush Limbaugh is right

This will be the first and last time I ask people to pay attention to what Rush Limbaugh says.

My party is relying on fear and loathing of Hillary to get the nomination, to unite Republicans, who are, some of them, off the reservation. The Republicans do not seem to be relying on leadership in their party to unite the party. They seem to be relying on all these external things, nobody is going to vote for Hillary, negative turnout factor. What if she's not the nominee? We've got make sure she's the nominee if the Republican Party is to be unified.

If Obama is the nominee, we are doomed, and you should get ready and prepared for it now.

Rush Limbaugh, February 7, 2008