Congressional Dem FEC Filings - Overview

Our congressional candidates have entered their busiest campaign and fundraising schedule. The end of year reports are in and I've been curious whether Democrats were having an easier time raising money now that they are in the majority. If so, is that showing in the fundraising numbers of the challengers as well?

Generally, our Democratic congressmen have had some success with their fundraising. Only Mike McIntyre has less cash on hand this cycle compared to the same reporting period last cycle. Of course, Mike McIntyre has a larger war chest than any other North Carolina Democrat serving in congress or running for congress. I don't think it's time to wring our hands for poor Mike.

Let's take a general look at our incumbents:

Butterfield - CD 1 2007 2005
4th Quarter Income $70,915.00 $72,600.00
4th Quarter Expenses $35,143.18 $18,994.44
Cycle-to-Date Income $341,880.00 $203,990.62
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $128,413.46 $124,141.65
Cash on Hand $191,935.99 $76,791.03


Butterfield has had a slightly worse 4th quarter over this time last cycle, but his overall numbers are much better. He has more than doubled his cash on hand over this same filing period last cycle and it's doubtful he will face a strong challenger if he faces one at all.

Etheridge - CD 2 2007 2005
4th Quarter Income $92,198.72 $50,738.43
4th Quarter Expenses $36,934.45 $30,243.72
Cycle-to-Date Income $580,125.68 $342,739.75
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $210,234.80 $250,130.09
Cash on Hand $686,023.44 $571,840.79


Etheridge's cycle-to-date expenses have gone down and his income is considerably higher. Like Butterfield, it's doubtful he will face a strong challenger in November. Maybe he'll spread the wealth to other congressional candidates who can use the support.

Price - CD 4 2007 2005
4th Quarter Income $81,461.00 $139,861.00
4th Quarter Expenses $82,271.96 $52,734.15
Cycle-to-Date Income $419,816.82 $272,738.00
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $308,007.14 $202,995.95
Cash on Hand $255,767.19 $148,044.23


Price had a smaller quarter in fundraising, but that could simply be due to the timing of his events. A closer look at his expense receipts will tell that story. I doubt there will be a serious primary challenge to drain his finances, but he should be prepared for a challenge by BJ Lawson in November.

McIntyre - CD 7 2007 2005
4th Quarter Income $67,200.00 $110,931.81
4th Quarter Expenses $35,032.56 $19,228.89
Cycle-to-Date Income $523,576.37 $479,602.34
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $171,897.53 $114,100.54
Cash on Hand $1,158,967.16 $1,265,250.51


McIntyre is the only Democrat who not only shows a decrease in quarterly fundraising, but a decrease in COH as well. He is also our Democrat with the most cash on hand. McIntyre stands firmly to the right of most Republicans I know. It would be interesting to see his donor list. We might not like the fact that he is to the right of a lot of Republicans, but he represents a fairly conservative district and it's difficult to imagine a successful primary bid with this amount of cash in the coffers.
Shuler - CD 11 2007 2005
4th Quarter Income $160,667.01 $174,830.40
4th Quarter Expenses $73,369.66 $70,830.40
Cycle-to-Date Income $807,400.68 $440,972.40
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $293,443.25 $85,485.98
Cash on Hand $625,655.68 $352,986.42


As conservative as Heath Shuler is, it's a good feeling to include him with the other incumbents. He shows an impressive increase in money raised for the cycle-to-date over the same time last cycle and his cash on hand is also impressive. I don't think 11th District Republicans can successfully paint him as Nancy Pelosi's water boy and he should have a fairly easy time fending off Republican opposition.
Watt - CD 12 2007 2005
4th Quarter Income $72,350 $53,871.04
4th Quarter Expenses $17,670.14 $16,769.36
Cycle-to-Date Income $332,903.00 $141,361.19
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $219,800.04 $112,815.14
Cash on Hand $208,589.87 $156,956.33


Mel Watt has more than doubled his fundraising cycle-to-date from the same time last cycle. His expenses have also gone up, but he is still showing stronger cash on hand figures. Watt is fairly safe in this district and can probably serve the people of the 12th District for as long as he likes. He hasn't necessarily had the funds in the past to be generous with donations to other campaigns, but he has leant his name and time to help challengers like Larry Kissell.

Miller - CD 13 2007 2005
4th Quarter Income $75,510.00 $71,908.83
4th Quarter Expenses $113,053.96 $92,322.92
Cycle-to-Date Income $499,340.04 $379,391.95
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $306,706.65 $213,477.08
Cash on Hand $238,573.75 $184,016.23
Debts $19,006.79 $21,506.79


Brad Miller emptied his coffers to fight the challenge brought by Republican Vernon Robinson in 2006. Not many people took Robinson seriously because his campaign tactics hinted at a lunacy we don't normally see in an election for public office. Miller did take him seriously, spent down his bank account and is bouncing back nicely. He will need to continue strong fundraising efforts to fend off nuisance challengers, but Miller has impressed just about everyone, including his colleagues in Washington. I will go out on a limb and say he's safe for the time being.

The incumbents appear to be benefitting from their short time as the party in control in Washington. A closer look at their numbers will show whether this money is coming from PACs, big donors or folks closer to home. Our Democratic challengers are also faring better with their fundraising efforts.

Adame/Weber - CD 3 2007 Adame 2005 Weber
4th Quarter Income $2560.00 $7730.33
4th Quarter Expenses $1851.85 $0
Cycle-to-Date Income $8343.47 $7730.33
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $3701.00 $0
Cash on Hand $4538.12 $7730.33


It isn't fair to compare two different candidates, but it can give us a snapshot of what is going on. Marshall Adame has a fundraiser coming up this month in Raleigh, so his numbers should jump a bit. From the FEC reports it appears that all of Craig Weber's campaign funds were from Craig Weber. In many ways Adame is a good match for this district, but fundraising will have to pick up for him to get his message out.

Carter/Sharpe - CD 5 2007 Carter 2005 Sharpe
4th Quarter Income $25,637.63 Had not filed
4th Quarter Expenses $22,122.16 a report with the
Cycle-to-Date Income $25,637.63 FEC at this point.
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $22,122.16
Cash on Hand $3515.47


Roy Carter has got to be scaring Virginia Foxx out of her garters. Foxx has the power of incumbency behind her, but Roger Sharpe made a dent in her standing in the district and Roy Carter may very well have what it takes to finish her off. This will be an interesting race to watch. Carter's campaign is positive, professional (my limited exposure to them) and enthusiastic. This is the sort of campaign volunteers will get behind if they sense he has the commitment to raise the money to help make the grassroots efforts pay off.

Ovittore/Blake - CD 6 2007 Ovittore 2005 Blake
4th Quarter Income &
Expenses
Cycle-to-Date Income &
Expenses
Has not filed a report
with the FEC at this
point.
Had not filed a report
with the FEC at this
point


Any candidate has an uphill battle against Howard Coble in the 6th Congressional District. Every candidate who challenges him, though, can eat into his credibility and his campaign war chest. Jay Ovittore is taking this challenge seriously and it's in Coble's best interest to defend his seat.

Kissell - CD 8 2007 2005
4th Quarter Income $98,662.84 $19,020.57
4th Quarter Expenses $70,965.69 $15,365.69
Cycle-to-Date Income $325,986.42 $19,020.57
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $194,818.28 $15,365.69
Cash on Hand $137,369.57 $3654.88


Larry Kissell is in excellent position compared to this time last cycle. He has obviously developed a strong discipline when it comes to dialing for dollars, but he needs to continue strong fundraising for the rest of the cycle to overcome Hayes' cash and incumbency status. The good news is that Larry's name recognition hasn't dropped and his poll numbers are relatively strong. It's exciting to see Larry Kissell in a stronger position than this time last cycle, but this battle is far from over and he continues to need a strong grassroots effort to put this in the win column for Democrats.

Note: I did not include John Autry in this table. He has never filed a report with the FEC which indicates he hasn't raised enough money to be competitive in a challenge to Kissell or Hayes.

Taylor/Overby/Glass - CD 9 2007 Taylor 2007 Overby 2005 Glass
4th Quarter Income $29,620.28 $100.00 Had not filed a report
4th Quarter Expenses $36.387.93 $258.80 with the FEC at this
Cycle-to-Date Income $29,620.28 $150.00 point
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $36,387.93 $258.80
Cash on Hand $24,332.35 $6,023.52
Debts $31,100.00 $11,191.60


Both Overby and Taylor are capable of giving Sue Myrick a reason to buy all those billboards from her husband's advertising firm. It's long been recognized that Myrick will plant her mug all over the city of Charlotte and beyond whether she has an opponent or not. How else can she funnel money into her personal bank account? Legal or not, I don't think her constituents will be too happy to find out that this is how she uses their campaign contributions. Harry Taylor is a sentimental favorite, but either man can bring attention to Sue Myrick's shortcomings and to what many consider an abuse of campaign donations.

Johnson/Carsner - CD 10 2007 Johnson 2005 Carsner
4th Quarter Income $123,975.00 Had not filed a report
4th Quarter Expenses $5,121.33 with the FEC at this
Cycle-to-Date Income $123,975.00 point
Cycle-to-Date Expenses $5,121.33
Cash on Hand $118,853.67


What can I say? This is an excellent first filing. Johnson has opened up strong, but will need to keep up this level of fundraising and develop a strong grassroots following to pull this off. I think it's possible. McHenry has a lot of negative national press, but it's hard to tell how much of it is reaching his constituents. With both Republicans and Democrats gunning for McHenry he'd probably better keep a low profile for a while. Of course, that shouldn't be hard for the squirt.

On the whole, congressional Dems in North Carolina are looking strong and further research will show if it's local support, national donor support or PAC support. We shouldn't look at strong financials and think that tells the whole story. GOTV efforts will be huge on both sides and you never know what conservative Dems will do if they don't like who we're running for president.

I plan to follow this with a more detailed analysis of each race and will dig into the Republican numbers as well. I realize I might have missed some folks who are out there raising money for a possible run, but I stuck with the candidates I'm aware of and will happily add the others I've missed.









Comments

Why...thank you

I plan to look at the challengers first and then will move to our congresscritters as they gain opposition.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Some thoughts ...

On the 5th ... Price really doesn't have a heckuva lot to worry about. It's a presidential year, and you can bet your bippy that Carolina's gonna turn over leaves to put a Dem back in the White House ... which is bad news for ANY Repub running in that area.

As far as the 9th and 10th go ... at the very least, Myrick and McHenry are gonna be bled white. I know Drama Queen sounded pretty confident of Johnson's chances against McHenry, but I figure that we'd have to see Myrick either go down or barely squeak back in before McHenry goes down. No matter what the demographics say, the 9th is far, far less Repub than the 10th.

4th for Price, but point remains.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Yeah, DC, I'm probably being overly optimistic

But Patty's numbers against Johnson dropped ten points from August to December, falling under the magic number 40. Now he has a bunch of Republicans going after him. Add to that, his history of collapsing under criticism, and I'm pretty giddy these days.

But, you're right: the district is solidly Republican. 65% or more. Myrick, however, isn't such a bozo and doesn't have a national coalition of the burned (gay rights activists, credit union supporters, and bike-commuters) working against her.

I realize that everyone has to husband their donation dollars, trying to spend them where they will do the most good. I just want people to consider Daniel Johnson. He appeals to Republicans and they are not happy with the phony conservative they have. They might just take a Yellow Dog Democrat (and hope to defeat him down the road!)
 
News of the 10th district: See Pat Go Bye Bye,

Christian Dem....I pretty much agree with your assessment

I just don't have it in my heart to tell any Dem that their hard work running for office is going to fail. Every Dem who runs accomplishes something - even if it's just opening a few more eyes, taking resources away from the Republicans so they have to defend territory, etc. Many of the seats held by Republicans are long shots, but you just never know until you try.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Keep Foxx out of the Hen House

Roy Carter is working hard to do just that. As you all know, campaigns are not won on ideas alone, and as a retired teacher and football coach he can't self finance the campaign-- he needs all the help he can get from good people who are willing to take a stand. Lobbyists in Washington will pay whatever it takes to keep Foxx there working for them instead of us . Help Roy Carter teach them an important lesson-- that people here in NC believe in People above Politics. Donate today and join 108 other online Carter contributors at ActBlue

Remember-- you don't just vote on May 6th and November 4th-- You vote every time you spend money. So, be sure to do what you can to financially support your candidates. Every single dollar counts!


There is nothing wrong with America that can't be solved by what is right with America. -Bill Clinton

I'm an idealist without illusions. JFK

PS

Thanks to Betsy for the post and for nicely packaging the numbers for everyone's viewing pleasure!!

It is not enough to understand, or to see clearly. The future will be shaped in the arena of human activity, by those willing to commit their minds and their bodies to the task. RFK

I'm an idealist without illusions. JFK

deleted

mistake
 
News of the 10th district: See Pat Go Bye Bye,

You are certainly welcome

You folks are doing a terrific job.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Thanks Ms Muse

I want to stress that the 10th's Pat McHorny only raised $140K while spending $135K.

So in comparison, Daniel Johnson's numbers are indeed impressive.

Of course, Pat nets $202K cash on hand due to earlier fundraising. Then again, he has $90K in debt so his net number is strangely close to Johnson's net.

And anther strange fact: For the 2008 election, McHenry has raised 610,000 but he has also spent 571,000. Doesn't sound to fiscally responsible, does it?

Especially since in this time period his head-to-head stats v Johnson have dipped to 39-32 . . . and when you think he has the franking privilege, you really have to wonder at his PR expertise.

But still, Daniel Johnson faces an uphill battle. Click here to donate to the 10th's best hope. Think of it as an investment in preventing a future Jesse Helms.

 
News of the 10th district: See Pat Go Bye Bye,

Great Work, Betsy!

I'd like to remind everyone here that you don't have to live in NC-06 to vote against Howard Coble. Send a donation to Jay Ovittore, and give him the resources to fight against the blight that Coble has been on our state for 24 years.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

fund raising can be deceiving

wow, joining Blue NC the worst decision i've made in a while. I've never blogged before and now i'm obsessed with it and keep refreshing the "track changes" on the main page. anyhow...

About legislating fund raising. If an incumbent is not raising much money, that often means they happen to be so safe (for both primary and general elections) that they are not even trying to raise cash. They usually only raise vigorously when they feel threatened. So that would explain Price and McIntyre's (and others') recent lackluster fund raising. If they wanted money, it is there. It's just a matter of them wanting to spend the effort to shore up their war chests--which in this year they relize will not matter much for Dem incumbents. They'd rather see the money going to challengers to republican seats, open seats, and the Presidential race.

It's like crack....

only virtual.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

That's right

We call it blogcrack . . . but just remember . . . it's an addiction for the greater good!

:)

yeah, it totally is

It's hurting my work life, my love life, my poor dog's walking life. It's ruining me! Maybe after a couple weeks I'll be able to just use a little at a time :)

Your life will never be the same

I kept asking for help when I first started. I remember specifically questioning Anglico and Betsy. Little did I know I was asking the alcoholic how to quit drinking.
 
News of the 10th district: See Pat Go Bye Bye,

We followed you....but I swallowed hard

with your first comment about joining BlueNC being a mistake. Glad I kept reading before I fell over in a dead faint!

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

yes, I'm really enjoying it!

I'm loving the community feel and thoughtfulness of the posts!

best place on the web for that. :)

And we usually get the politics right, too. (Or - we get the politics left. Or something like that.)

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi