Coming Soon To An NC Interstate Near You?


Last night, FiveThirtyEight blog reported a marked shift in polling on the NC Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan and NC House Speaker Thom Tillis.

In North Carolina, a Rasmussen Reports poll found Democrat Kay Hagan ahead of Republican Thom Tillis 45 percent to 39 percent. Tillis had led in the previous Rasmussen survey by 5 percentage points. Another North Carolina poll released Thursday, by SurveyUSA, gave Hagan a 3-point lead (46 percent to 43 percent).

Combined, the two polls move Hagan from a "45 percent underdog to a 61 percent percent favorite." But there's not much analysis on why.

Let's speculate, shall we?

In part, Hagan has opened up a 21-point advantage over Tillis among women. The "war on women" message has taken such a bite out of the NCGOP that the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity feels the need to cut an ad to sell Rep. Tim Moffitt, R-Buncombe, to women way out in WNC. Thanks to Tim Moffitt, ladies, you'll be glad to know you have "the power to determine your own destiny," to invest and to keep more of your money away from Raleigh. Just don't keep it in your pants. That's one area Tillis, Tim, and their friends in Raleigh have made sure by law that you don't control.

More and more, Tillis and close associates seem to be alienating their own base.

WidenI77 held a town hall meeting in Mooresville on Tuesday to explain how "Thom's Tholl Road" on I-77 would work. The NCDOT is already signing agreements with a Spain-based contractor for the 50-year tolling contract I wrote about in the AC-T. WidenI77's presentation above details many of the unknowns in the contract, raising concerns about cost and privacy as well as the fact that paying tolls to a foreign vendor for 50 years siphons vast sums of money out of the local economy. The tea party, libertarians, and GOP activists are increasingly unhappy about the prospect. So much so that it seems Tillis and his lieutenants are having to fan out to defend the deal before angry constituents.


After the town hall, Rep. Bill Brawley, R-Mecklenburg, got an earful from Republican and independent attendees about corruption they suspect in the highway deal he's backed along with Tillis. Ashevillians will remember Brawley as one of Moffitt's allies on the legislative study to look into transferring the Asheville Water System to a regional authority. He was in the posse Moffitt brought with him to face angry parents at a May education rally at Roberson High School in Buncombe County. Brawley, Moffitt, and Nathan Ramsey, R-Buncombe, co-sponsored the bill to wrest control of Charlotte-Douglas airport from the city of Charlotte.

Speaker Pro Tem, Rep. Paul Stam, R-Wake, is having to face a meeting of the Southern Wake Republican Club this coming Tuesday. Stam gets to rebut a presentation by NC Citizens Against Toll Roads that believes that legislative efforts to promote public-private partnerships "violates the state constitution, and delegates taxing authority" to unelected officials. They may mistrust government, but they mistrust a marriage between government and business even more.

Tolls and public-private partnerships (P3s) are the new funding model these politicians are promoting, not just for I-77 but for future highway expansion projects across North Carolina. And over objections from angry conservative businessmen, Republican officials, and party activists. Perhaps those are more reasons why Tillis' senatorial prospects are headed south.

How much weight would Tim Moffitt, the former co-chair of the state’s House Select Committee on Public-Private Partnerships (2011), and Brawley (the other co-chair), and Tillis give to local objections when it is time to widen I-26?

(Cross-posted from Scrutiny Hooligans. Barry Summers contributed much source material for this post.)

Comments

Just yesterday I had

a not-so-funny thought: While Tillis still has a good chance of winning the entire state's vote for a US Senate seat, he would probably lose his current House seat if he was running for that, thanks to this toll road controversy. Like I said, not funny.

Speculation

The shift may be because people are finally paying attention to Thom Tillis, and when they do, they don't like what they see one bit.

  • Toll roads fetish
  • Billion dollar budget deficit
  • Teachers leaving in droves
  • Motorcycle vagina legislation
  • Women are pissed

Throw in a condescending attitude and a creepy smile and there's even less to like about Mr. Speaker. I'm surprised he wants more debates. He's terrible on camera ... and he just can't do anything about it.