I've tried to write a quick post about this three times now and it keeps getting deleted (by me). So, without all the hubbub, the Bradley Effect:
Bradley effect derives its name from a 1982 campaign involving Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California. Bradley, who was black, ran as the Democratic party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who was white. The polls leading into the day of the election consistently showed Bradley with a lead. However, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than that which had said they planned to vote for him, and that voters who had been classified as "undecided" had gone to Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers.
Similar voter behavior was noted in the 1989 race for Governor of Virginia between black Democratic candidate L. Douglas Wilder (right) and white Republican candidate Marshall Coleman. In that race, Wilder prevailed, but by less than half of one percent, despite pre-election poll numbers that showed an average lead for him of nearly nine percent.
The question being bandied about today is whether or not we've just witnessed the Bradley Effect in New Hampshire. Why? Because, this is how they choose their candidate in Iowa.
This is how they choose their candidate in New Hampshire.
1. I've made it clear that I dislike Barack Obama.
2. This isn't why, and something like this might make me try to help him if he wins the nomination (which I hope he doesn't).