Many of us remember Public Policy Polling as the group that provided some encouraging polls for both Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler. Today, PPP has released some early polls on the primary races for governor and president here in NC. We're so happy they've decided to share - at least I am.
The best news is that this isn't a one-time thing. According to their press release there's more in store for those of us who love real polls.
As we begin a new year, a new legislative session and a new campaign season, PPP is rededicating itself to tracking issue trends, campaign match-ups and approval ratings. you can expect more poll data and more expert analysis on all aspects of North Carolina politics and government.
What is Public Policy Polling? To find out more about Public Policy Polling and owner, Dean Debnam, just read this great piece from Bob Geary in The Independent Weekly.
The polls are below the fold...
There are plenty of folks working hard to put together and execute the polls, so a great big thanks to all of them for their hard work. My contact - our contact - is our very own justing. He is Justin Guillory and is a visitor here at BlueNC. I hope we will find him gracing our site a little more often.
Please keep in mind when reading the polls that their data is based on real people giving responses to questions. You might not agree with the data, but that doesn't make the poll wrong or bad. We are lucky PPP has decided to make more of its data available.
To the polls.....:
2008 Democratic Primary
Currently the data shows a plurality of voters still undecided when asked who they would support for president and for governor. Currently Edwards leads the pack of Democrats, but 40% are undecided. Perdue leads Moore with 41% undecided. You can see all the data here. (PDF)
2008 Republican Primary
Currently, data shows more Republicans have decided which candidate they will support in the primary and it's a squeaker with Giuliani leading the pack. Fewer have made a decision about their pick for governor, but Graham is leading the way in this one with a plurality undecided. You will find that data here.
I hope you will enjoy the polls and I hope you will welcome justing when he finds time to visit again. Public Policy Polling is local and with their transparency as to methodology I feel confident we will have fun with their polls over the coming election cycle.
Comments
You said you wanted polls
These are real polls. :)
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.
too many women
58% of the Democrats are women??? That seems very very high to me. Because of that I think this is not bad news for Moore.
This definetly backs up some of what I was saying about someone like Gingrich or Brownback turning out Republican strongholds.
I think its good news for us that Orr is so low. Graham has little name id, but is right where I would expect him. For no one else to be up that high is telling. I would like to see a poll for Governor to include Hayes though, considering in the last poll he was at 15%, double the rest of the field.
HelpLarry.com
"Keep the Faith"
This is their first big rollout of polls
after their announcement. I'm sure as the field narrows there will be others.
You know, a smart candidate would go ahead and hire PPP just so they can control the release of info....or control it somewhat.
In Geary's article he bragged about their accuracy. Their poll that came out giving Larry a high lead was taken before the flood of negative mailers hit. I think it was on target for the time it was conducted.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.
I didnt mean
To question their accuracy. These guys are very good at what they do. Its just almost impossible to poll a primary. Usually is anyway.
HelpLarry.com
"Keep the Faith"
I know you didn't
sorry...was just chatting not really speaking to your comment. I'm tired and don't feel well again. Katie came home with a fever and well.....it's just something else we'll be trading off.
Now, get to class.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.
women vote very well!
It's hard to predict the percentage in any given year, but women are about 58% of the Democratic Primary electorate. Surprised? Women actually comprise about 54-55% of the general election electorate.
Wow, I'd never looked at that particular detail
I knew we comprised more of the electorate in a general election, but 58% is strong. I need to go look at the details to see if there is a difference between Rep. women and Dem women.
Hi Justin, thanks for stopping by.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.
first
Thanks to justin for correcting me. Also, their poll has 50-50 for men and women on the republican side, so the 58 makes more sense if women are 54+ of the general.
HelpLarry.com
"Keep the Faith"
Bill Graham
is totally conflated with Billy Graham, which, of course, he is banking on. Orr's numbers are more likely to be reliable, as are Smith's.
I'm going to have to dig up the area code maps because the regional difference across all the candidates and issues are huge.
Thanks so much for posting this SD . . . and thanks to Justin for sharing it so we can all get a front-row seat on the numbers. Good stuff.
Of course, it's our job
to stick a different label on Graham....or at least to try.
I haven't looked at the details of the poll. I'm working on some PDFs to include in a piece going up tomorrow, so simply haven't had time to pick these apart.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.
Cross tabs contain interesting information
Also in the race b/t Moore and Perdue, Moore's support is from the older age group and much of Perdue's support is from younger age groups. Older folks vote in primaries in much higher numbers. Still, with a plurality of voters undecided, it's too early to say. Still, it's fun to look at it all.
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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.
you can tell
Where Perdue is from and where she has been working the past few years. Huge support in 910 (coast) and 919 (rdu) areas. Moore seems fairly even, although he is stronger in the west. If this holds then where turnout comes from could be a predictor of who wins. Mountains might mean Moore but the Coast will definetly mean Perdue.
Also, look at the specific issues questions. Edwards is amazing amongst Education and Economic voters, and is definetly holding his own among health care voters.
Perdue has a huge lead amongst Health Care voters. I think that for Moore to win he is going to either need to peel those votes away, or make a better case for himself among economic voters. Specifically, he needs to just tell people what he has been doing for the past few years.
HelpLarry.com
"Keep the Faith"
As to what Moore needs to do:
I assume we can expect him to use all that money he's raised to buy ads to make his case. I don't think it will hurt when people realize Richard Moore is the guy who's been doing those ads telling them they might be owed money . . .
And how relevant is a poll this early? (Or should have read more closely the comments above me?)
“All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.” So enjoy the Drama.
It doesn't have to mean anything
It's fun and each side/all sides/any side can cherry pick the data to find something good to help rally their troops.
They're also great learning tools. You can go back and see when the numbers break one way or another. Look at the advertising or events that happened before the poll to see what kind of impact there was. Polls are great fun. :)
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.
Perdue campaign jumps on poll results
I'm on their mailing list and this just landed in my in-box:
Fast work.
Hehe...that is fast work
It will be interesting to see how that undecided/other 41% decide to vote. It's a great boost even if it is pretty far out.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.
40% of the people called aren't undecided!
The 4th choice (40%) was "someone else," and I think it's bad news for Edwards that 71% of those polled in his home state, in one way or another chose "someone else."
Then again, it's not very good polling when "other" and "undecided" are the same category.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
ha
nice picture sam.
I think its pretty unimportant. First, he won this primary in 04. Second, our primary wont matter.
But you are right about the problems with other and undecided being the same choice. I wonder why they did it that way.
HelpLarry.com
"Keep the Faith"
North Carolina's primary doesn't matter
But a lot of ground troops for field ops in SC (for all candidates) comes from NC. And I'm sure Edwards is counting on the massive NC support to put it in play if he wins the primary ... and, more importantly, he's counting on the Old North State for a lot of money.
BTW, he's the only candidate anywhere close to a million on ActBlue.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
He raised a boatload of money from NC already.
His One Corps groups in North Carolina are growing larger everyday. As for SC, I was living at the beach last time and unless something drastic happens he will win based on his "local boy does really, really good" vibe and also because they happen to agree with his positions.
One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it.
- Carlos Ruiz Zafon
Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me
Ya ain't listenin'
Sure, he's raised a lot of money, but sustaining that at the level that this Democratic primary is going to require is the issue for Senator Good Ol' NC Edwards. Especially when Hillary has limitless fundraising potential (and Obama will too if he runs), Edwards needs a base as broad as possible in NC to raise a steady stream of money.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
why
does it need to come from NC?
HelpLarry.com
"Keep the Faith"
It needs to come from everywhere, of course
But it's hard to find a replacement for the home state/home region money that forms a consistant core for the campaign - more important for Edwards in this case because he's less "national" than many of the candidates.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
you were there
5000 in Chapel Hill on December 30th almost 2 years before the general is definetly an indication that he has enough support for field in SC.
And, he had what, 300 people at 2100 a head at an event in chapel hill? I grant thats not enough for a bid, but it is a good start.
HelpLarry.com
"Keep the Faith"
...and he was fully booked in South Carolina.
One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it.
- Carlos Ruiz Zafon
Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me
I've seen the One Corps numbers
And I do not deny that the Chapel Hill event impressed me in a big way. I think Edwards is the frontrunner.
But of course we don't know how many of those people will make the trip down to Columbia. It will be interesting to see how many put on Carolina Blue stocking hats and start working in NH and Iowa around October.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
does it have to be
Carolina Blue? Cant I just choose something nondescript like black or white or something? I can work for the man, but I wont sell my soul.
HelpLarry.com
"Keep the Faith"
As long as it isn't Orange ...
I guess you'll just have to work where stocking hats aren't needed. Vinod wants a jod in Nevada so that he can hit up Vegas, so maybe you could join him there. Hold a "Slots for Edwards" fundraiser :-P
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
I'd consider it a mitzvah if you didn't make us all look bad
Working hard in July in Nevada isn't too important ... and hey, what if someone wears a John Edwards shirt during the WSOP and it gets on ESPN? That'd probably be good.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks