A Question from Afar

A blogger on another stage wrote in with a question. I gave a brief response, but I also let him know that I'd post the question for your responses, what with several heads being better than one (especially if the one is mine).

As I'm unfamiliar with the state, in races for Congress, which races do you think will be close? I'm guessing Larry Kissell has a shot (if he gets funding) but what's your take on all the Cong. Districts?

Comments

Hmmmm

Watt
Miller
Price
Kissell
Shuler
Butterfield
Etheridge
McIntyre

McHenry (Boo, Hiss)
Myrick (Boo, Hiss)
Coble (Boo, Hiss)
Jones (Boo, Hiss)
Foxx (Boo, Hiss)



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Depends upon the winds

I, too, think Kissell has a strong shot. I got to sit next to him at JJ (the NDCP's big to-do dinner), as well as next to one of his fundraisers. They have a strong team and a strong message in anti-Republican incumbent times. Why I am convinced? I was talking to his fundraiser saying Kissell needed to be raising more money, to which Kissell's teammember responded, 'It's hard because he teaches until 3:15.' That deserves pause, and with enough resources, Kissell can get that to resonate with voters.

With that said, November is a long way off. There is plenty of time for the winds to change direction (both good and bad). Looking at turnout numbers, both early and overall, it seems clear Republican voters are demoralized...as they should be. Bush continues his terrible performance (building on his first four years), GOP members continue having legal problems, the country continues to underperform, etc. Low turnout caught Democrats with their pants down in 1994. It may be time for payback.

It's not all down and out for the GOP, though. The President probably made his best political decision when he turned Rove loose, back into the waters in which he is most at home. That could spell trouble; do not underestimate that man. I'm not sure they are looking here, but Rove & Co. can pack quite a punch.

As for which races will be close, I think the ones to watch are definitely Kissell's and Shuler's. Taylor is done in my opinion; while Shuler may not be an Asheville Dem (as most here would prefer), he still brings us one closer to a majority. Not being an Asheville Dem may also be the secret to winning in that district. Hayes is a little safer even though the district is supposedly friendlier to Democratic candidates. Kissell builds steam with each passing day, and victory is definitely in reach (although I'm sure Dunn has made it hard to raise money from the establishment, as they were torched by his dropping out).

Then there is Brad Miller vs. Vernon Robinson. Oh, brother. I don't think Vernon's appeals to bigotry and radical conservatism will peel off enough voters. And you must remember that Kerry won the 13th in 2004. It's not a Mel Watt district, though, that is for sure. It is going to take a TON of resources, however, to make sure voters know the true Brad Miller (Robinson raised $3 million for his 2004 race), not the Robinson rendition. Robinson will raise considerable cash from out of state and will use it to try and peel off more conservative Democratic and Independent voters. He will say and do anything to get elected, as the voters in the 5th district know all too well. And he will also affect turnout levels, although it remains to be seen in which direction. At the end of the day, Miller should be re-elected. It will likely take the same effort necessary for Kissell and Shuler to beat their respective incumbents.

Boy Orator

This largely echoes my brief response

I'll just add that the crappy thing about Robinson is that at least some of the money Brad spends defending is money that could have gone to another campaign—Shuler and Kissell, or in districts farther away.

But it's a good thing for

But it's a good thing for Wake County Democrats that Brad will need all the turnout he can get. The more pro-Brad voters we get in Wake County, the better our state house candidates will do, like Ty Harrell, and our County Commission and Clerk of Court candidates

Boy Orator

Thanks. Good, thoughtful insight. I'm not sure who you are or why we should be listening to you other than it seems like you know what you're talking about. So here's a different question:

What's your take on the preparedness of NCDP for the battle at hand? I ask because I have my worries. Is the party ready to push this battle hard and strong all the way to November 7?

NCDP may be ready

We will have to wait and see the State convention is in June in Greensboro. Rummor has it that Dean will be the keynote speaker. If that is true, he coyuld help fire up the troops.

Thanks for the optimistic note

This whole Art Pope business is very upsetting to me. I wish I knew of serious plans to interrupt his reign of terror.

What are you going to do?

What are you going to do? Frame him with a hooker and a dead body?

We beat him by out working him. We beat him, unfortunately, by riding into the swamps of corporate money and raising as much as we can. And then we get more people elected and change the freaking system so that Arty boy can;t buy himself anymore representatives.

And THEN we set him up with a hooker and a dead body. And a kilo of coke. That ought to do it. (Though John Hood would just say that the free market should regulate how many hookers and coke baggies a man should have)