PPP Survey: Elizabeth Dole vs. Grier Martin

Results from our latest poll released today. Click here for complete results. PPP blog.

Elizabeth Dole 43%
Grier Martin 37%

Elizabeth Dole 43%
Kay Hagan 27%

From our press release:

“To compensate for the extremely low name recognition of state legislators, we added a short description of Martin and Hagan to the survey,” explained Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Martin was described as a “37 year-old two-term legislator” and “veteran of the War in Afghanistan,” while Hagan was a “five-term State Senator” and “chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.”

“Grier Martin, or his profile, does very well against Senator Dole,” said Debnam. “If he were to enter the race he could be even more competitive than other Democrats we have tested.”

More results:

Elizabeth Dole 46%
Elaine Marshall 35%

Dole Approval

Approve 46%
Disapprove 40%

Bush Approval

Approve 35%
Disapprove 61%

Comments

In my opinion

No Democrat has the appeal that Grier has . . . and these numbers show how vulnerable Dole would be to a challenge by a true patriot.

Now you just have to get him to come here and talk about it!

When have I not said that Rep. Martin is the man?

1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

Yeah, baby

Grier is going to be very careful about this decision. A giant ginned up Draft Grier movement would not be the right thing to do at this point. He knows what his strengths are, and he knows what the challenges are, and he will decide on his own schedule.

But dang he would be a good candidate.

"85% of Republicans are Democrats who don't know what's going on." -Robert Kennedy, Jr.

"Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." -Voltaire

Holy Freaking Cow

I thought Grier would be close, but not that close. This is awesome. Oh wow!

Today is Blue South's first day with the Edwards campaign in New Hampshire. I just called and left a message for him on his cell phone. I figured he would want to know about Grier and about Larry.

Good luck on your first day Cubby! Play nice with the other boys and girls. :)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I still wanna know

where Liddy at? Other than a couple of speaking engagements, has she set foot in the state since she ascended the senatorial throne?

That's gotta be worth some hay. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't think that state representation is the place for absentee slumlords. Just sayin'.

"The most unamerican thing you can say is 'You can't say that'" - G. Keillor

A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history.
Mohandas Gandhi

Those weren't speaking engagements.

They were reading engagements.

Lovex7

You are so mean :)

It's why I love you.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Wow, that's close.

Heartening news for Grier.

Edit: Justin, do you have a working link to the pdf file on the pros and cons of automated versus traditional polling? I tried to access the file from PPP's website but it didn't work. I'd like to read more about IVR if you get a chance. Thanks.

IVR

Here is a link to that PDF.

Also, check out the blog posts here, here and here. Each provide some insights into IVR.

Thanks for the links.

n/t

One good thing:

If Grier does run, there's no guarantee that his seat will stay Democratic after 2008.

The silver lining? At the moment, as far as I can tell, that would finally give us a reason to be grateful for the fact that Democrats padded their majority in 2006.

Not that it's the fault of the House that we don't have more to be thankful for.

Hmmm

Wow - that's pretty cool. Also, look at the numbers for Elaine Marshall - higher than I would have expected. Grier has nothing to lose, he should get in the race.

I think

we have found our candidate.

43-37, with almost universal name recognition for Dole vs very low recognition for Grier Martin - wow.

This could be a lot of fun.

Health

What about him?

"Heath"

We hope not. Let him stay out west and represent his local citizenry for awhile, and let us figure out exactly what he stands for. Personally, I won't support any Democratic Senate candidate that is against stem cells. Not a litmus test, not a single issue voter.

John Edwards is great!
- Sam Spencer, BlueNC, 7/3/07

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Amen

n/t

Amen II

I know there's a real moral position for being "pro-life," as they self-identify. But to be anti-stemcell is just contrived, hypocritical bullshit. These folks are generating hundreds of thousands of blastocysts that get thrown in the trash after a few years. To be anti-stemcell is to be anti-life. That's a fucking fact.

War is over if you want it.

War is over if you want it.

I've maintained that

one cannot be simultaneously "pro-war", "pro-death-penalty" and "pro-life". The concepts are completely philosophically irreconcilable. Yet by some bizarre, self-inverting pretzel-logic, the right claims that they are.

Tole y'un's th'ain't right. Pazzi, tutti.

"The most unamerican thing you can say is 'You can't say that'" - G. Keillor

A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history.
Mohandas Gandhi

Grier,

I have met you once, and you told me that you checked BlueNC and other internet outlets (as all good public officials and citizens should). By now you must have seen these results at PPP and here. You are looking at the chance of a lifetime for yourself and to serve your country and state. You risked your life for your country to go to Afghanistan. You put your legal career on hold to serve your state in the legislature, even though it is a low paying, long-hour, thankless job. Now you have the opportunity to unseat someone who is harming the State of North Carolina and the United States with her incompetence and laziness; the enemy of what you have fought for in the past.

Fighting Republicans for federal office has been difficult in the past, but this Republican could not be worse, the national climate could not be better, and you have a new ally in the emerging progressive netroots in North Carolina. I know you are ready for this fight. Please run for the Senate and do so quickly given the length and expense of the campaign. Consider this the first salvo in the Draft Martin movement.

Sincerely,

TarGator
President and CEO, TarGator's Draft Grier Martin Committee

We have our candidate.

These are the best poll results I've seen in a long time. It's time get get Liddy Dole out of the Senate once and for all. If he's polling this good with no name recognition and just a simple description, imagine the results if he turned that into a campaign along with everything Liddy Dole has failed to do for North Carolinians.

My sentiments exactly

n/t

I See a Promotion in Your Future

Rub the Lucky 8 Ball and ask another question.

Dole Attacks!

Apparently PPP has inspired the wrath of Elizabeth Dole's campaign. Mark Stephens, Elizabeth Dole’s campaign honcho and former ED of the NRSC, took issue with our most recent poll. He attacked our methodology as unsound, spouting the usual complaints about 12-year-olds answering our surveys – yada, yada, yada. We’ve heard that one before.

They got a WRAL news story amended to include a line about how “A polling firm that works with Dole questioned Public Policy's methodology.” Read the comments for more of Stephens’ complaints and my response. The fact is that there is no evidence of any the problems he mentioned. And his complaint ignores the imperfections of traditional telephone surveys.

We’ve have been running these match-up polls for months and have never seen this reaction out of the Dole camp. Bottom line: Something got them spooked.

On the PPP Blog.

Yep.

John Edwards is great!
- Sam Spencer, BlueNC, 7/3/07

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Sample question

Random Digit Dialing and traditional phone calls are increasingly missing segments of the population that have no land line. Do you have any idea how many cell phone users are listed on the voter rolls, since you guys poll off lists of likely voters?

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

We have no idea how many

We have no idea how many voters have no land line. We only know that the proportion of voters without landlines is smaller than in the general population.

The no land line phenomenon is more prominent among the young, poor and people who rent housing -- the same demographics of those who are less likely to be voters.

awwww....

Something got them spooked.

Something got them spooked

and his name is Grier Martin.

The Dole HQ

is running scared. Their "rock star" candidate is leading an unannounced, undecided, and unknown Democrat who has not spent a $1 campaigning yet by just 6 points.

Just wait until Grier decides to say "Boo!".

Room to grow

Crosstab analysis of our latest poll should give Democrats even more reason to be optimistic about their chances against Elizabeth Dole. The Democratic candidate will have much more room to grow his/her support.

When Dole was matched-up against Grier Martin, 22% of Democrats were undecided but only 13% of Republicans. Maybe more importantly a third of unaffiliateds were undecided. Against Kay Hagan 35% of Democrats and 45% of unaffiliateds were undecided, compared to 18% of Republicans.

The poll crosstabs also indicate African-Americans were not fully behind the Democrats either. In the Martin match-up 23% of blacks were undecided and 31% were for Dole. For Hagan it was 38% undecided and 29% for Dole. I see no reason why the African-American community would not support the Democrat in 2008 with their usual 80-90% support. Some of the support for Dole can probably be explained by name recognition and celebrity status.

If you add up the support a Democrat should expect from Democrats, African-Americans and some unaffiliateds, then this race looks even closer to a tie.

Come on, Grier!

Just say the word and an instant army will materialize around you.

the people who will be trying to "get" Grier

Yeah, I don't think we have to worry about these kids.

John Edwards is great!
- Sam Spencer, BlueNC, 7/3/07

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

This is why Grier would be so devastating to Dole

She is a Class A Chickenhawk who has no understanding of what war even means. Just like this jerk off.

while Dole and others

were talking about supporting the troops, Grier was working his butt off in the legislature to pick up the slack and actually help our troops in their time of need.

While the federal government was cutting spending on veterans' benefits, North Carolina was picking up the slack, in no small part due to the efforts of Grier.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"