PPP: Cooper Leads Burr in 2010 Matchup

Public Policy Polling has released a poll with a hypothetical head-to-head match up between Senator Richard Burr and N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper. If the election were held today it appears that Roy Cooper would run away with it.

Tom Jensen, who according to comments found at Red State has the power to part the seas, has this to say about the results:

If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally.

Cooper leads Burr by five points in a hypothetical pairing. He also has a similarly high profile to Burr, with only 34% of voters in the state having no opinion about his job performance, compared to 37% who are ambivalent about Burr. It is quite unusual for a lower ranking state official to start out with similar name recognition to a US Senator.

The full poll is found here. What do you think of the results?

Comments

I'm not surprised a bit

Cooper was the only Democrat to carry Moore County in November. If he can win here, he can win the entire state. Run, Roy, Run.

How can anyone predict 2 years forward?

Predicting who will win an election years from now is like someone predicting what the weather will be like years from now.

This is a bit ridiculous, isn't it?

The best thinking is independent thinking.

What is ridiculous, Smitty

is that you didn't bother to read the post and decided to comment anyway.

As I said in the post - IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY.....and so on and so forth. A poll is a snapshot of what people are thinking AT THE TIME THE POLL IS TAKEN. It can indicate how people might vote in two years if things don't change.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Uh, huh

Right

The best thinking is independent thinking.

Oh, gee...thanks

Look, I know what you said, Betsy...but look, there was a lot more in that post than just the one statement. I know, I know....you'll show how that's not true, but it's true to me.

But, hey, I've come to expect getting trashed on this venue regularly. I still stick around...Okay?

The best thinking is independent thinking.

Smitty.....we wouldn't have as much fun without you

Seriously, maybe you are reading something into my one or two sentences that I didn't intend. I did say it was a hypothetical match up and I did say "if the election was held today." Now, some people just don't like polls and there are some really bad polling firms out there, but I promise I wasn't speaking in code. I really did mean the actual words I used. Also, PPP is a pretty good firm. While Dean Debnam is a Dem and they work for Dem candidates, their independent polls have been pretty darned reliable over the past few years.

The strength of polls lies in how you use the information. Burr has probably already started running internal polls to see exactly what and where his weaknesses are. He's finding out what areas of the state need to learn more about him and what ages, gender, etc. he needs to introduce himself to. Most of the people who read here didn't look at this post and think that a Cooper win is a foregone conclusion. We looked at this and saw it for what it is......Cooper is a strong choice for a senate candidate. We also saw that Burr is in a weak position for an incumbent because too many people simply don't have an opinion of him. That is something we can try to capitalize on.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I know what the deal is, Betsy

Look, your "subject line" was this:

Cooper Leads Burr in 2010 Matchup

So, of course most folks would think your thread was about how polls show how Cooper would beat Burr in 2010. But, hey, what do I know?

I'm not going anywhere, Betsy. I do know that this blog is chuck full of lib/dems and that I'm in a huge minority here and that what I say will be challenged because of my "leanings". It's a good thing to be able to discuss political/environmental/social stuff here. I don't expect anyone to give me a pass on my opinion on things of that nature...and no one that doesn't hold my political beliefs should expect a pass either.

Burr has been a very good candidate both for U.S. House and U.S. Senate in NC. He's someone we, as republicans, respect for his efforts within our party. He'll get trashed by the left, no doubt. He'll have the left-leaning media against him today, no doubt. BlueNC contributors, for the most part, will have tons of negatives against him. But, let's see what happens a number of years from now...if he does choose to run again.

The best thinking is independent thinking.

So Now you see

Smitty/Dap I guess now you see what I'm talking about over at TAP. TAP discussions are dominated by the right point of view and I'm over there trying to provide a bit of balance, a differing perspective from the status quo. Now here you are at the progressive blog beating your head against the wall. You've got to admit that most of the folks on here are extemely well informed, and they all have names!

I'm a moderate Democrat.

This is an excellent forum

I've been on a number of blogs and this one is by far the most challenging. For one thing Huh, everyone here seems to be educated. I also like having a name put to posts so that we can know who we're responding to.

For me, being a conservative republican that leans slightly moderate on some issues, it is challenging, as I've said. But, hopefully the "majority-left" here appreciates having a perspective from the other side on the blog. I make a SNAFU every now and then, but they've gotten over it, so far :)

The best thinking is independent thinking.

Nifong! Nifong! Burr! AG Cooper?

If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally.* Red State

AG Cooper has one big problem with name ID in this state......His very slow reaction to the infamous Duke Nifong case makes it almost impossible to forget since a Neo-con entrenched Republican jump on it first as a defender of Duke......Duke's political reach is long and deep with Republicans......

Besides, linking Cooper to

Besides, linking Cooper to Nifong seems to me to be about as solid a case as linking Obama and Blagojevich. (i.e. so tenuous it doesn't exist)

Just thinking out loud

If Cooper were to run and win in 2010 would the Governor name a replacement for him at AG? If so what would be the chances that she would name Richard Moore? Wouldn't that be interesting? Kind of like Obama and Hilary.

I'm a moderate Democrat.

Here ya go

(3) Vacancies. If the office of any of these officers is vacated by death, resignation, or otherwise, it shall be the duty of the Governor to appoint another to serve until his successor is elected and qualified. Every such vacancy shall be filled by election at the first election for members of the General Assembly that occurs more than 60 days after the vacancy has taken place, and the person chosen shall hold the office for the remainder of the unexpired term fixed in this Section. When a vacancy occurs in the office of any of the officers named in this Section and the term expires on the first day of January succeeding the next election for members of the General Assembly, the Governor shall appoint to fill the vacancy for the unexpired term of the office.

Extra cool thing...The Governor has the power to appoint an interim officer, meaning that someone could be chosen to be AG, but with the option of removal at any time until the election.

"Keep the Faith"

Cooper

Strong candidate. Good on environment, unlike Richard Burr. I hope he considers it seriously. Burr works and keeps up his constituent contacts--he won't be a sitting duck like Dole, and we'll need every advantage we can get.

Dan Besse

My understanding

is that the GOP sees a lot of potential in Burr. Recall that his name was bandied about in VP circles early in the cycle.

This being the case, the GOP will fight hard to keep his seat. Not to mention the frightening prospect (for them) of losing both Senate seats in one (southern) state in two years.

That said I'm optimistic and will happily support our nominee, Cooper or otherwise.

Good point.

The GOP powers that be were annoyed with Dole over ineffectiveness as RSCC chair. They see the far younger and harder-working Burr as something of a golden boy. He's very conservative while good at not seeming so.

Dan Besse

Is he really though?

One-third of voters had *no opinion* of him, which suggests that his image as not being a hyperconservative freak is mostly due to the fact that nobody knows about him. What this means is that whoever comes in must define Burr before he does.

I would guess

that between now and then the GOP will make sure people know him. They've got a solid year or so to shape his image and build hi war chest.

I figure that a lot of GOP-based legislation will have his name on it, either as introducer or co-sponsor.

Dan makes a good point as well. Burr is very conservative but does not flaunt that stance. He could temper his positions a bit without being called on it.

The top prospects, imo, for the seat are Cooper, Moore, and Shuler. But you are correct, William. This decision needs to be made fast yet carefully.

Style and emphasis

Good question, but no, it's not just the relative low profile. His style is low-key and cordial, and his choice of rhetoric and issue emphasis is mainstream. The public is given no reason to perceive him as a conservative crusader. He just votes with the right wing on any test question. He's the business conservative's ideal gray man.

That does not make him politically invulnerable by any means--but a harder target, yes.

Dan Besse