The only losing scenario for Democrats

Depending on who you ask, last night's results in Texas and Ohio either give Senator Clinton's campaign the victory it needed to win the nomination, or solidified Obama's lock on the nomination. Despite this difference of opinion, I am still confident that whoever walks away with the nomination will have an easy victory in November against McCain.

Now before some folk jump up and point out that all the polls show Senator Clinton losing to McCain, let me address those polls. The question is being asked of likely voters, meaning those people who intend to vote. While this might have been an informative group to talk with in years past, the 2008 election is a completely different animal.

To start with, support for McCain is anything but enthusiastic. When you have members of the GOP describing their acceptance of McCain as being like "the five stages of grief", you can't claim people are happy about their candidate. In fact, James Dobson, the top religious loony on the Right has said he will sit out the election rather than vote for McCain. The voter turnout for the Republican primaries have been anemic, to put it mildly, while turnout on the Democratic side have been smashing records. The Hawaiian primary, for example, was over three times the projected turnout, which itself was set at 150% of the 2004 turnout. There is a lot of anger and enthusiasm on the Left for this election. If either Democratic front runner wins the primary fairly, November will be a cake walk against a severely demoralized and brain dead GOP effort.

So, how can we lose? Well, just one scenario presents itself, and the ball is firmly in Senator Clinton's court on this one. If Clinton wins the nomination by either skulduggery or by Republican-style dirty tricks, she will lose the general election.

If Clinton wins via Superdelegates, this will cause a complete fracture of the party, with a near total loss of the netroots vote, the youth vote, and the black vote. These folks will sit out the election, and without that voting block, we can't win. Worse, the scathing attacks by influential netroots bloggers that will result from such a move will cause damage to Clinton that can only help McCain.

If she is perceived to win by a campaign of dirty tricks, the same result will occur.

I may be accused of being melodramatic, but I firmly believe a loss of the presidency in November will be catastrophic not just for us, not just for the party, but for the entire nation, if not the entire world.

Our Republic is severely damaged and the Constitution is in ruins. We are, by textbook definition of the term, a de facto police state. The only possible way to draw us back from the brink of total disintegration into absolute tyranny, is to reclaim control of the White House and the legislature. Even with such a victory, we face an uphill struggle, since unless our side has the spine to impeach several members of the Supreme Court (Scalia and Thomas for example) for official misconduct, then that institution will thwart just about every attempt at restoring the Constitution to supremacy.

Allowing McCain to win in November will cement the imperial presidency. Even winning overwhelmingly in the congress will do us no good, as the party will be seriously divided, with both sides blaming the other for the loss. This will cede control of congress to the very same people who destroyed the country in the first place.

The cynicism that will result of such a loss will destroy the Democratic party for at least a generation and by then, we won't have any elections to worry about.

Now before anyone accuses me of writing an anti-Clinton screed, I remind them that I didn't invent the Superdelegate system ( a system, in my opinion, designed to prevent the people from electing a candidate unacceptable to the party's masters), a mechanism that allows a losing candidate to win. I didn't invent dirty tricks, nor do I encourage their use. The choice is up to the candidates how to conduct their election. The choice is also up to them as to what is more important, their ego, or the country. Arguably, Obama could be the person who uses Superdelegates to "steal" the election, or who engages in a campaign of dirty tricks. But that is not the perception of the general public, rightly or wrongly.

Comments

support for McCain

To start with, support for McCain is anything but enthusiastic.

You're right, but the hatred for Hillary will trump any lack of support for McCain when it comes to getting out the vote for the GOP.
Republicans will line up in droves just to be able to vote against her.

Left on 49

So,

We should let the right wing nutjobs dictate our nominee?


Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Uh, no

I don't see how you can make that assumption based on what I have said. In fact, could you point to the place where I said, "Let's all people on the right to pick our nominee"?

While I am not an enthusiastic supporter of Sen. Clinton, I am prepared to vote for her if she wins. Either candidate is acceptable, though I have sharp criticism for both of them.

Use of campaign tactics by EITHER side that follows the GOP play book will cost us the election. Right now the perception is, like it or not, that the Clinton camp is starting to use these tactics to win. When you stand up and point to McCain and say, in essence, he would be a better president than Obama as Clinton did the other day, you must expect this kind of view.

Liberalism as a badge of honor! No excuses, no apologies.

Liberalism as a badge of honor!
No apologies, no excuses.

Uh, also no,

Mine was a rhetorical question to LiberalNC's comment, which seemed to imply that we should just vote for Senator Obama based on the hatred of Senator Clinton by the right wing.


Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

not the only reason

I certainly am not saying that this should be the only reason to vote for Obama, I can name a lot of other ones, but elect ability sure is a big issue.

Sorry,

My mistake. Sometimes easy to miss the threading.
:)

Liberalism as a badge of honor! No excuses, no apologies.

Liberalism as a badge of honor!
No apologies, no excuses.

No Worries

It happens.

We all seem to be fleshing things out like adults, which is sort of the point.

I'm happy that things have remained in the realm of intellectual discussion so far rather than visceral, emotional, content-less infighting.

I'm hoping that remains the overriding theme until the nominee is officially selected. After that, we can rip the Republicans a new orifice.

:)


Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

This is true of the Limbaugh wing of the party

but, not true of the middle of the road GOP.

There are three parts to the GOP: The Religious Fascists, the Rich, and the War Hawks. Even within those groups, there are subgroups of varying levels of fanaticism driven by pet persecution complexes, such as the xenophobes, the gun nuts, free trade absolutists, protectionists, flat-taxers, anti-labor, and about many more.

McCain has lost the fundy branch almost entirely, that means the GOP loses a lot of foot soldiers who do the ACTUAL work needed to get out the vote. The Fundies have woken up to the truth that they are simply pawns and the folks actually in control of the party have been using them for years.

The xenophobes are anti-McCain. The anti-tax crowd aren't happy with him either.

McCain has lost the support of a key constituency that has given the GOP just about every election victory since 1980. Ignore the electoral vote and look at the popular vote in previous elections and you do not see landslide popular vote victories, you see victories in the 5-10% region. With the loss of the fundy vote, and some of the fanatical subgroups (not to mention revulsion over Iraq by TRUE moderates), McCain just doesn't have any way to make up the losses of these groups.

Hatred for Hillary is enough to bring out SOME Republicans, but not enough to overcome McCain's deeply flawed candidacy.

While voters in the Republican primaries have barely turned out, Democratic primary voters have been turning out in two, three or even FOUR times their usual numbers.

And bear in mind, these are PRIMARIES we are talking about. Voter registration is way up, mostly to the Dems benefit.

If people are this fired up by the primary, what will be the turnout in November?

This turnout will overwhelm the GOP in November, unless the scenario I outlined comes to pass.

Liberalism as a badge of honor! No excuses, no apologies.

Liberalism as a badge of honor!
No apologies, no excuses.

I don't see a split before the election..

The super delegate has been blown out of proportion, because I haven't heard any of the so-called leaders of the Democratic party saying they would do any over rides of the primary turnout. I think they set up that system to avoid another Gary Hart type scandal, just before the convention. What if that Rezco thing blew up into a much bigger tie-in to Obama? Or some other scandal happened involving Clinton? That's when the super-Ds might come in. The large percentage of Dems will be there for whoever the candidate is, and a high percentage of independents, who are the real key to this. Where I see the split coming is after this election. The 'corporate' wing, which has worked it's way into control, and the 'outsiders' who used to be the grassroots of the party. That will become a big issue for the party in the coming years, in my humble opinion.

Excellent points

although I believe that the SD system came into being before Hart.

The problem has been that Clinton's people brought this up in a way that made people speculate along these lines. Thus, this is why we are seeing a lot of focus on SD.

Liberalism as a badge of honor! No excuses, no apologies.

Liberalism as a badge of honor!
No apologies, no excuses.

While the numbers for mccain

or even the GOP turn out does not show a lot of support, it seems that the inevitability of him getting the nomination was accepted by the GOP. Did not matter if 100 or 1000 or 100,000 voted for him, he was going to get the nomination. If there was nothing else to vote on, how many reps did not even go to the polls and vote?

However, it would be a grave mistake to think that the reps would not come out during the general election.

Just like folks here are saying, I do not care who the Democratic nominee is, I am going to vote for him/her. The same is being said on the other side.

The GOP is not going through this extremely tough fight. They are already mending what fences they broke. They are getting organized. It would be foolish to think otherwise.

Dems are preparing for what to do IF this nomination process comes down to the super delegates. And it does not sound pretty.

I say that the die hard dem and the die hard rep wash each other out. Only the people in the middle make a difference. mccain has the chance to work on those people while Hillary and Obama fight it out.

Anyone who sits out because their choice isn't nominee is

a whiny-ass, titty-baby coward.

Right. The answer to your choice losing is to just hand the country back to Republicans instead of fighting like hell for it. How very American. What's so embarrassing is that you're talking about Democrats. My guy is out and I'm not happy about it, but I will vote in the primary and I will fight like hell to win back the White House this fall.


Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I fail to see the connection

titty-baby coward

between a borderline compulsive fixation with the female breast and cowardice.

If this were true, I would never be able to move, much less go out and do things.

:)

I just love you

You always make me laugh.

I don't think Kosh is saying these groups will sit out....just that they might be inclined to sit out. I'm hearing that threat so much these days that I'm sick of it.(I need to stay away from Kos and Open Left!) Seriously childish threats coming from some groups supporting Obama. It's just their own brand of spreading fear. You know, the old do-it-my-way-or-I-won't-play threat.

Think chicken breast, man...think chicken breast!



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Jugs

Booby


Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Breastage, as in

"Did you happen to notice the breastages that were trying to hide under that sweater?"

"What am I, blind? I spotted them from like fifty feet away."

Um...this is NCBLUE, right?

not really

Um...this is NCBLUE, right?

It's BlueNC.

Some of these people may in fact

sit out the election if the scenario I was outlining came to pass.

Specifically, the first time voters.

Follow my reasoning, if you will.

We have invited these people to get involved, and they have come out like gangbusters. They have volunteered, given money, shown up at rallies and are VERY excited.

What happens when their guy, playing by the rules, win, but then the party elders trot out a "special rule" that snatches the victory away?

They will become angry, cynical, and will refuse to be further connected with the process. They will hardly be in the mood for a lecture on "pragmatism" and "party loyalty" from those very same elders who "stole" their guy's victory. Calling them "whiny-ass titty baby cowards" won't help matters either. In fact, I think that would kind of increase the alienation. :)

Personally, I would like them BOTH on the ticket. But while I am sure Obama would accept a #2 spot if he lost, I would bet money Clinton would refuse such a spot. Her ego is the sort that doesn't lend itself to being second.

Just my observations.

Liberalism as a badge of honor! No excuses, no apologies.

Liberalism as a badge of honor!
No apologies, no excuses.

Just to add to that thought

It seems more likely that Senator Clinton would offer such a position to Senator Obama than vice versa.

I really get the impression he doesn't like her on a personal level, but that's little more than speculation on my part, really.

So I guess I'm saying that Senator Clinton would be both more of a sore loser and more of a pragmatic (gracious might be stretching it) winner.

Like you however, I'd be pickled tink to see them both on November's ticket.

Either way, I hope that the non-winning candidate's workers are not so easily disillusioned or prone to cynicism, though you may well be right about that.


Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

I don't know, Betsy.

whiny-ass, titty-baby coward

I think you're going to have to work on expressing your self. :-D

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

I know

***hangs head in shame***

I think some people would just prefer I learn to express myself in a more mature manner. You wouldn't believe the tsk tsk emails I get every time I cuss.....and none of them are from my mother......anymore.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Oh I wasn't serious.

Just email them back and tell them to kiss your butt.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Come November, I'll vote

for the Democratic nominee, regardless of which Senator that is.

That said, unless Senator Obama comes out with a much clearer and specific statement of support for getting the politics out of science and keeping religion out of the classrooms a la Senator Clinton's statements, I'll be voting for Senator Clinton in May.

I'd really like to get behind Senator Obama, but this is something that's sticking in my craw. He talks a lot generally about technology and whatnot, but he really needs to echo Senator Clinton's statements to get me excited about voting for him.


Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Each side has issues which stick in their craw

Mine for Obama involves his continuing to vote for funding Iraq. Mine for Clinton involves her abject refusal to repudiate her Iraq war vote.

Neither of these flaws invalidates either candidate in the cold light of day which will be the general election.

Both side's "if the other guy wins, I won't vote" crowd need to remember this.

But, people are people.

Liberalism as a badge of honor! No excuses, no apologies.

Liberalism as a badge of honor!
No apologies, no excuses.

Agreed on both counts

and I consider those two specifics a wash. Neither of them makes me happy.

A perfect candidate would be discussing what style of handcuffs would look good on the inauguration platform, as far as I'm concerned. Well, that and which airline offers the cheapest coach rates to The Hague.


Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?

Of course I'm crazy, I'm a blogger. What's your excuse?