Don't pop open the champagne yet, but you might want to put some on ice. Use this poll as motivation to get out there and convince those undecideds that they need to vote for an honest man, an humble man. They need and want to vote for Larry Kissell.
The Elon University Poll, as reported by Dr. Hunter Bacot - yes, the same man who previously said this district wasn't in play and wasn't even on their radar (heh, heh, gloat, gloat) basically confirms the poll numbers release a couple of days ago by RT Strategies.
Please follow below the fold...
Elon has not posted the results (so no link), but they've been reported by NPR and the Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill (enough with the goat, already, Jim). I'll quote from Morrill's article.
Their appearance came the same day a new poll by Elon University showed the war in Iraq and the economy the top concerns of voters in the district, which spans Charlotte to Fayetteville. It also found what could be good news for each candidate.
The survey of 410 residents (not necessarily voters) found 61 percent have confidence in Hayes, and 48 percent approve of the job he has done in Congress.
But the poll found 68 percent said it is "time to give new people a chance to serve" in Congress. And 41 percent said they would support the Democratic candidate, compared with 33 percent who said they would back the Republican.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
In other words,41% Larry Kissell and 33% Robin Hayes with a large undecided portion of the population. Bacot says that makes the race a statistical dead heat. While normally I would say he's right, since undecideds tend to swing toward the incumbent, I think the current climate and mood of the electorate will have some sway over the undecided voters also.
The weaknesses of the poll as a predictor are numerous. The most important to point out are the sample size of 410 (small) and the fact that it is a sample of residents who aren't necessarily registered voters. To Bacot/Elon's credit, they clearly state this in their work.
Good news? You damn well betcha it is. Let's get out there and get those undecided voters folks. Boots on the ground and ears to the phones.