The "Morning After" Post

As I write this, there are a lot of BlueNCers still online. But it's become clear that, at least as far as NC-08 is concerned, it won't be over tonight. We'll have lots to discuss and pick apart over the coming days and weeks. Moreover, we have a lot to celebrate: nationally, Democrats are on the march; Heath will be representing our mountain counties in January, leaving Taylor time to find out once and for all whether it's possible to swim in money (a la Scrooge McDuck); and all of Art Pope's money couldn't buy control of the state legislature. You helped with all of this, and you should feel proud.

And amidst the anxiety, analysis, and much-deserved self congratulation, I just want to plant the seed of a conversation we'll need to start having pretty soon: what's our plan for North Carolina?

Before the 2005 elections, BlueNC as we know it didn't really exist. In the 46 weeks and 2 days since we moved from a simple blog to this community website, more than 600 people have signed up for accounts. Several truly impressive citizen-journalists have signed on and made BlueNC their home base for digging out the stories behind the stories in NC politics.

We've seen our thoughts and ideas covered in the state's major newspapers, and we've made sure that those on the other side—from the well-funded free-marketeers in Raleigh to certain Krazies in Kinston—have to listen when we talk.

In short, in just a year, you have established the foundation for a real force in North Carolina politics. I'm not talking about a blog, or even a community forum. In BlueNC we have a nascent grass-roots policy organization operating in an independent, community supported environment. And if we see even a fraction of the growth rate over the next election cycle that we've experienced in the past year, you can expect BlueNC to be well on its way to forming the ideas and the people that will lead this state in years to come.

So, for now, just think about it. Anyone here, from Anglico and TarGator to our newest user (that would be you, blawson), can step in and take an active role in determining what happens next.

For now, though, there are still votes to be counted and electoral mysteries to be plumbed.

Comments

Plan #1 - Adding one more

Plan #1 - Adding one more with NC-08!

Provisional Ballots

So it will come down to the provisional ballots. It would be nice if we knew how many there were. Can’t the people at the BOE count them now, since it is such a close race?

That seems reasonable, doesn’t it?

Well, at least here in Cumberland County the BOE has no idea of how many they have in there possession. I bet it is the same in other counties.

Wouldn’t it be wise to call the people at the BOE up, get them out of bed, and count those ballots so that nothing fishy can happen from now until when they give us the official count?

This is a serious election with serious consequences. We all know that there is a lot of money involved. Don’t we need to do as much as we can to make sure there is no period where these controversial ballots sit and by virtue of their being “under lock and key” submit themselves to being more easily tinkered with?

Let’s count them right now. I bet it is better for our democracy.

One holdup

You need to determine if the provisional ballots are validly cast, which would require research on current addresses, etc.

reply

no, I mean the # of ballots. The quantity that they have in there possession. If you want to alter the race you change the quantity.

Right, Right

My synapses are not connecting correctly right now.

AP report on Kissell race

the headline says it all

Kissell is down by 346 votes before provisionals. Provisional ballots usually favor Democrats.

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

"What's our plan?"

We are just getting started and can continue to build up the North Carolina Dem party, both the netroots and on the ground, get organized for 2008 so we see a bigger turnout of Dems for North Carolina Democrats in history...and...TAKE BACK THE WHITE HOUSE! We CAN turn NC blue.

Up with the netroots!
It's our time now.

This is my plan

I agree 1000% with NCDem. We need to get back on the ground, build up the party everywhere, making it a fulltime organization dedicated to making our voices heard, not just supporting candidates when they need us.

I believe that this election vindicates Howard Dean's 50-state strategy, so let's keep pushing for a Democratic Party presence everywhere.

-- ge

Besta é tu se você não viver nesse mundo
http://george.entenman.name

Besta é tu se você não viver nesse mundo
https://george.entenman.name

Roll up their sleeves...

Zabouti the national party has an excellent chance to regain the public's trust by digging in IMMEDIATELY and working the issues.

For instance, it appears by the exit polls that corruption was a topic on folks minds yesterday. Great, Price, et. al. need to start talking about war-profiteering hearings - their plans and goals. Heard a lot of talk about price fixing/manipulation of gas/oil - wouldn't hurt to couple an investigation into the windfall profits with a call for a crash energy program ala NASA's Apollo project (and how about redirecting the federal oil and nuclear subsidies towards better alternatives - and do it tomorrow).

The Medicare pharmaceutical negotiation bill should be first out of the gun.

So, don't start with impeachment (though we should get around to that) but with some very specific issues that folks agree need fixing - corruption- and start working them immediately.

Oh, and quislings need not apply.

CitizenWill
there comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but he must do it because Conscience tells him it is right. MLK,Jr. to SCLC Leadership Class

CitizenWill
there comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but he must do it because Conscience tells him it is right. MLK,Jr. to SCLC Leadership Class

Ditto

I hate to rain on the parade, but all of our Democratic candidates in Gaston County lost last night. What I would like to see happen is the building of the party in all of North Carolina. We're in desperate straits here, and I can't move somewhere else. Help!

100 Counties

I firmly believe we should begin pushing for a candidate in every House race and every Senate race. From what the NCDP said last night they won a race where they didn't even know what county it was in because they hadn't targeted it. The candidate won.

I've been thinking and working on a multi-part 100 county post that i will probably post next week. It would help everyone from dog catcher to Presidential race 08.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Kissell/Hayes breakdown by county

Kissell results on top:

Anson: 61/39
Cabarrus: 40/60
Cumberland: 46/54
Hoke: 55/45
Mecklenburg: 68/32
Montgomery: 64/36
Richomnd: 57/43
Scotland: 53/47
Stanly: 39/61
Union: 50/50

So we need provisionals and/or recount votes found in Mecklenburg, Anson, and Montgomery.

100 counties = Kissell Win

to give a little preview of the 100 counties strategy, this falls under the "Atkinson Effect" heading.
8th Congressional District State Legislature Races:

NC STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 083 (Cabarrus County)
Name on Ballot Party Ballot Count
Linda P. Johnson REP 10,868
No Democrat.

NC STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 082 (Cabarrus County)
Name on Ballot Party Ballot Count
Jeff Barnhart REP 11,211
No Democrat.

NC STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 068 (Union County)
Name on Ballot Party Ballot Count
Curtis Blackwood REP 16,759
No Democrat.

NC STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 067 (Union County)
Name on Ballot Party Ballot Count
David Almond REP 13,732
No Democrat.

NC STATE SENATE DISTRICT 35 (Mecklenburg, Union)
Name on Ballot Party Ballot Count
W. Edward (Eddie) Goodall, Jr. REP 29,143
No Democrat.

NC STATE SENATE DISTRICT 29 (Montgomery, Randolph)
Name on Ballot Party Ballot Count
Jerry W. Tillman REP 23,748
No Democrat.

Now, let's assume we run a 100 Counties strategy and get someone in every race. Even if it is just "some social studies teacher". That person gets their family, friends, coworkers, neighbors, precinct, Moose, Elks, gun club, racing team to turn out to vote. Let's say each candidate gets 1000 extra people to vote through their organization and outreach and personal connnections (all of which will be organized through a cohesive, online database).

How would 6000 Democrats voting in this election influence the results? How about if they only turned out 500 voters, how would 3000 votes effect the Kissell election? The Dole election? The Perdue election? The Presidential election?

I'm going to be digging into numbers for my 100 Counties posts to determine the turnout in counties with all races filled and in those with no races filled.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Exactly right

Agree completely, Robert. We need a 100 county strategy in NC. Candidates for every one of the 170 seats in the legislature. We shouldn't be handing these seats to the GOP for free, and you just never know where you might win a seat by accident - just like last night. And you never know how many voters you may draw out to vote in other races up and down the ballot.

This would not take a lot of money. It would take effort on the part of the Democratic Party to recruit good candidates to put their names on the ballot.

A definite vindication of the 50 state movement

Not only that but it shows that Democrats can do just as well as Republicans when they challenge every race and have competent candidates.

And Will is right, we need to dig in today. To show the American people we are a party of change and new direction we need to tackle the 100 hours plan and Iraq RIGHT NOW.

I have faith in the party to show that it is not inffective or extinct yet. but we need to do alot more than celebrate, we need to errr...activate? ;)

But great job everybody, I've never been prouder to be part of such an electic body, albeit online, before.

Our children need to know that some people fought back, when others collaborated.

Our children need to know that some people fought back, when others collaborated.

Kissell numbers updated 8:41am

The state Board of Elections updated the vote counts this morning:

Robin Hayes REP 61,168
Larry Kissell DEM 60,822

That's a difference of 346.

See how easy that is? We gained on Hayes lead by 122 votes in our sleep.

Now on to those those pesky provisional ballots....

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

I put this on the Kissell post

I also put a gloat warning on my Pelosi post. :)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Tester and Webb will win.

Not to trigger an automatic recount. But, there could still be a court-mandated recount if there is PROBABLE CAUSE to believe votes were not tabulated for Burns.

Seems likely the courts will allow it.

But, for the time being, John Tester wins.

PA, OH, RI, MO, MT makes 50-50.

In VA, Webb is up by a full percentage point, which makes it likely he will be declared winner. Although, again, there might be a recount.

Unbelievable. Both houses of Legislative Branch.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

How are provisional ballots handled?

What are the rules? Are they in a sealed container at each precinct? How are they secured and transported to the county BOE, and how long do they have to verify and count them?

Thank goodness the Dems control the legislature. At least we have one thing in our favor - a provisional ballot that is only provisional because it was cast in the wrong precinct - but correct county - will be counted. That is not true everywhere.

DSCC just announced they believe they won MT and VA

Saw it on Kos...they say they will wait thru the process and make sure every vote is counted in both, but that they're confident that we will narrowly win both. Yippee!

AP calls MT for Tester

According to MSNBC

seems everyone has had the same reaction

Oh, Joooooooooooooe! We've got a job FOR YOU!!!

oops, I thought a dem had picked up this governorship. Don't let Joe take the job, Republicans then "pick up" a senate seat.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

How about Spector instead?

Penn's got a D gov now, right?

Robert Gates

to replace Rummy

Gates on Iraq, North Korea in 1992

Robert Gates
Director, Central Intelligence Agency

Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee Defense Policy Panel
27 March 1992

WHAT IF SADDAM WENT AWAY? How might Iraq's internal politics and external behavior change if Saddam Hussein left the scene?

As Saddam's decades of repressive rule demonstrate, he will do whatever it takes to cling to power. No succession mechanism is in place, nor are there any obvious candidates to replace Saddam -- Iraq is one of those countries where being the number-two man is unnerving, not to say life-threatening.

Consequently, we judge that if Saddam left the scene, it would be because of a coup or other violent act. How likely this is to happen, I cannot say, though we have evidence that Saddam's power base is shrinking and that dissatisfaction with his leadership is growing even among his core supporters -- chiefly, among Iraq's Sunni Muslims.

A likely successor to Saddam would be someone from the current, Sunni-Arab-dominated ruling circle -- someone who shares Saddam's perspectives, especially his belief in the political efficacy of ruthless violence. Such a successor might think pretty much like Saddam. Even so, whoever Saddam's successor is, he would lack a broad power base and could face immediate and serious challenges from other contenders. A successor regime might be a little less hardnosed, both toward Iraqi Shiites and Kurds and toward Iraq's external adversaries. While it would continue efforts to restore Iraq's military capability, it might shift some resources from military to civilian reconstruction. The new regime could anticipate a quick end to the U.N. sanctions as well as recognition and support from the international community. In the short run, then, Iraq might present a lower threat to its neighbors. Still, any successor to Saddam is likely to share his regional aspirations, and over the longer term we could expect Iraq to try to regain its position as the dominant Arab military power.

If a successor regime begins to have trouble maintaining Iraq's unity or territorial integrity, its immediate neighbors, particularly Iran, Turkey, and Syria, will be strongly tempted to intervene. They all fear that an unstable Iraq would threaten their own national interests and might lead to an undesirable shift in the regional balance of power. None wishes to see Iraq break apart into independent Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni states.

He correctly called North Korea's nuclear progress:

We believe Pyongyang is close, perhaps very close, to having a nuclear weapon capability. Where North Korea is concerned, moreover, we have to worry not only about the consequences for stability in Northeast Asia if it acquires nuclear weapons, but also about the possibility that Pyongyang might put nuclear materials and related technologies on the international market. In the past, the North Koreans have been willing to sell anything that could earn hard currency.
:::::
We expect that many of the North's military advantages over the South will erode throughout this decade, largely because of decreasing support from the North's traditional allies, coupled with its continuing economic problems.

Nevertheless, in the near term we could be entering a more dangerous period: -- North Korean strategists could recommend an attack on the South while the North retains its substantial edge in numbers of men and weapons.

-- Difficulties in maintaining and modernizing Pyongyang's conventional forces could reinforce the North's determination to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

My MyDD predictions

I know it isn't over, but I'd like to say I was pretty close...
Re: Election Predictions Thread (none / 0)

I'll make a couple predictions. First, no wave.

1. We win 18 seats in the house, which means conservative Dems wield power on votes, but not on what COMES to a vote.
2. We win (by margin) PA>OH>VA>MT>RI in the Senate for a 50-50 split.
3. Joe stays with us after beating Lamont by 3 points.
4. NC is the stunner with two seats, NC-11 and NC-08. While the wave fails to materialize elsewhere, NC residents are sick of being the poorest due to Republican leadership and CAFTA/NAFTA.

Second, wave.

1. We win 28 seats in the House.
2. We still only win 5 seats, but Ford comes {} this close to pulling it out.

CountryCrats - My world, my blog.
by Robert P on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 03:44:44 PM EDT
[ Reply to This ]

So, right now we have 29 House seats, but of course we will pick up a few more. We have won 5 Senate seats, but I thought TN would be closer than it was in the final analysis. I underestimated the poor quality of the TN race vote and the quality of the MO.
CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me