Larry Kissell Leading in NC-08: The Proof is in the Polls

Respected polling firm Anzalone Liszt Research has released a new poll for North Carolina's 8th Congressional District and Larry Kissell has tremendous momentum and is pulling away from Robin Hayes.

The number that jumps out is the informed vote where Kissell leads Hayes by 7 points. (49% Kissell/42% Hayes) The informed vote poll is taken after a paragraph about each candidate is read to the voter. These paragraphs include platform statements and are not considered a negative push.

Read the good news on the flip side...

Looking over the poll it is hard to find anything that is negative for Larry Kissell. Despite his disadvantage in name recognition (89% Hayes/22% Kissell) Larry only trails Hayes by 8 points in a head to head initial vote.(46% Hayes/38% Kissell) In other words, Hayes can't garner 50% of the vote even with overwhelming name recognition.

Another indicator that Hayes has an uphill battle for November is his positive to negative ratio. Currently this is 1.4 to 1 which according to Anzalone Liszt is well below the 2 to 1 ratio that is a benchmark for incumbents.

When you combine this with the current political environment in Washington it appears that Robin Hayes may be wearing the incumbency as a weight around his neck.

More specific numbers from the 8th District make the situation look even worse for Hayes.

A majority (52%) of voters give the economy in their area of North Carolina a negative rating. It is clear that voters believe CAFTA and "fast track" legislation has hurt the local economy and 59% are less likely to vote for Hayes because of his support for these two measures, after initially opposing them.

If you think the above tidbits are positive, the picture looks even brighter when compared to the numbers from 2004. Beth Troutman received 45% of the vote in November. The following poll numbers for the Troutman campaign are from a poll completed in September 2004. Kissell poll results are the first listed for comparison.

2006
Generic Vote: 42% Democrat / 33% Republican
Initial Vote: 46% Hayes / 38% Kissell
Informed Vote: 49% Kissell / 42% Hayes

2004
Generic Vote: 42% Republican / 37% Democrat
Initial Vote: 53% Hayes / 19% Troutman
Informed Vote: 55% Hayes / 26% Troutman

If Troutman can win 45% of the vote after such weak poll numbers, when voters are favoring Republicans and after being outspent by well over $1 million it is not only conceivable, but highly likely that the 8th District will be sending Larry Kissell to Washington in November.

Larry Kissell is an 8th District Democrat. He embodies the values and spirit of the people in this district. He understands what they feel is important, because he shares their feelings and their values. His campaign is about the people of the 8th District.

This isn't a poll driven campaign, but it's nice when a poll confirms what the voters have been telling you all along. The people of the 8th district are ready for a change and I hope that this poll will prove to the rest of the folks what we have been saying all along -- We're going to win this election.

Larry Kissell knows that is important to keep your word. He doesn't just say the words honesty and integrity, he lives them. These are the values that will appeal to the voters in this district and this is the message they need to hear.

This is a developing story, so look for updates.

Update: This will be posted in stories at DailyKos and MyDD tomorrow at 10:00am. Please consider stopping by and recommending the post. Larry deserves the national attention. Hotline and Cook need to take a second/third/fourth look in this direction. I will post links tomorrow as soon as the stories are posted.

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Comments

Sweeeet Jaysus

And this is Anzalone Liszt informed vote?

49% Kissell to 42% Hayes

GET THIS MAN ON TV PEOPLE!

"I'm sure if you asked Rep. Hayes he's 'flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed' to torture, just like he was CAFTA. Too bad he voted for both."
-Larry Kissell for Congress

Build The Momentum

AWWRIGHT!!

Thanks for the link, RANT. I entered a donation for Larry, and I hope everybody that reads this will do the same. He's too good a candidate to not have support from all of us. Hayes has screwed this district for too long! Go Get 'Em Larry!!!

ncheartland

"I am flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed to Robin Hayes"

The Kissell campaign gave us an exclusive

I received a call today along with a fax with the poll numbers. Out of respect for all the support that Larry has been given by the bloggers in this state and nationally, the campaign decided to release the poll to the blogs first and traditional print media second.

For those who don't know, Anzalone Liszt is a highly respected firm and they are hard to hire right now.

For those of you who aren't familiar with political poll numbers, these are better than good. Now, all that needs to happen is $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ support so Larry can take advantage of this and continue to build support.

Robin Hayes isn't going to have enough money.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Amazing-much better than I expected

Great work SD comparing the informed vote, with the actual vote for Troutman in '04. With 3/4 of a million dollars this seat comes home. All the national blogs today are talking about simular polls by Democracy Corps showing unexpected races in Oh, Pa and NJ in play, but in all those the democrats are BEHIND with the informed vote. Here Kissel is close in actual and ahead in informed. What the HELL does it take get people inside and outside NC to realize what an opportunity this is.

Actually, it's better than I expected as well

but not by much. I truly felt it was close with the numbers I'm seeing from the FEC and everything I've analzyed so far. It's not rocket science and DCCC has taken notice, just not financially. Hopefully this will bring an infusion of money and that's all Larry needs to keep the momentum rolling.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

And just think what could be happening

with some money infused into Carsner's and Sharpe's campaigns in the 10th and 5th. McHenry and Foxx are far worse than Robin Hayes.
 
“All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.”
So enjoy the Drama.

This is great news!

The people in the 8th district know when they've been cheated. Now it's payback time.

I think it's safe to say

that Larry Kissell is the next big thing. I hope people are noticing because this ship is about to go full steam ahead.

I can't agree more....

I can't be happier.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I am happy too......

But I'll be even happier if Larry has 500K in the bank by Labor Day!!
Thanks SD, I am sure we will ALL follow this tommorrow on Kos and MyDD.

Great news

This is great. It may be rather early for a realible push poll, but the fact that was made earlier about Hayes not even getting 50% by sole name recoginition is outstanding.

I think Kissel has a great chance to pull this out. I think he could be another victory story of the power of the internet. We need to take this all the way. I'll be droppin some bank into the 8th district once I make some.

Be just, and fear not.

Our children need to know that some people fought back, when others collaborated.

SD

Wanna cross post this to MyDD? It's such great news.

Hayes ought to be worried. He's betrayed his constituency when he hasn't been busy failing them.

Scrutiny Hooligans - http://www.scrutinyhooligans.us

It's going up at 10am at MyDD and DailyKos

Thanks Screwy...it is good news and we'll be shouting it from the rooftops.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

For your recommending pleasure

DailyKos

MyDD

Thanks everyone!



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Top of the Rec list on MyDD

Nice work!

We're getting a lot of recs

and if we had Robert (the beach can't be that nice can it?), Targator (moving isn't that stressful is it?), Anglico (Oh pleeease...a real job?...comeon A, you can skip work just this once), Screwy (real job excuse again....) and then DQ - (probably stayed up late researching - only person I've ever not met who is as big a glutton for punishment as I am!)

Maybe we can get them all in for DKos...it just needs a big push all at once and it's hard to overcome established diaries there.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Go Larry Go!

Go Larry!
I heard him speak in Charlotte last week & was very impressed! He pledged to represent the people of the 8th and comes across as one of them. He connects with regular voters, telling great stories to illustrate his point, and is bright & articulate. Larry understands what folks in the 8th are concerned about, jobs being shipped overseas, gas prices, the squeeze on the middle class. Hayes has done nothing to protect his constituents, and it's time for a change!
It's time to send a teacher to congress!!!

Fredly

if you have a DKos account please go post there...and consider recommending.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Drama Queen

Get your fanny over to DKos and recommend this dadblasted story....then we need to talk about the school supplies for Iraqi Children. I think I have everything else almost under control now.

I also had a "damn" thought at 2am..... Instead of in hearings..could the griles comments have been in a budget session?



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I just did, Ms. Impatience,

'Soon as I saw the post.

I saw the hearing listed somewhere. I'll look again to confirm, tho.

Back soon.
 
“All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.”
So enjoy the Drama.

Um..That's MRS. Impatience

Sometimes I love a puzzle and sometimes I don't. Looking for that hearing is one of those things that is so frustrating b/c you know it has to be there somewhere. Maybe we need to file a freedom of information request to get them off their duffs to find where they lost the hearing data....

I have to go tackle the weeds in the garden and the icky garage (almost finished)

I'll check back in later.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I know. Even if it turns up nothing

I can use, it's really bugging me.

So here's the listing from the March 12, 2003, daily digest in the Library of Congress's "Thomas" website under "House" and then "Committee meetings:"

INTERIOR APPROPRIATIONS

Committee on Appropriations: Subcommittee on Interior held a hearing on Bureau of Indian Affairs and Office of Special Trustee for American Indians. Testimony was heard from James Steven Griles, Deputy Secretary, Office of Special Trustee for American Indians, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Department of the Interior.

I'm gonna look more in that site. They seem to have every word uttered in chamber (and more).
 
“All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.”
So enjoy the Drama.

Also, here's the only

concurrent (at the time?) article. which has tantalizing quotes, don't you think? Considering Taylor did just what Griles suggested after getting an extra $30 K from gas, oil, and coal, just the industries Griles has been representing since the beginning of his James Watts/Jack Abramoff/Karl Rovian career.

Griles was under investigation (or about to be) at this time for not recusing himself from big-time coal decisions (as he had told Congress he would when he was confirmed.) Slimeballs don't get any worse than this guy. Combine him a Taylor and . . .

What I want from FOIA is the emails between these two and Abramoff. I have no doubt they exist.
 
“All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.”
So enjoy the Drama.

I've been looking on Westlaw

But haven't had any luck. I don't even know whether they have this stuff.

Thanks for trying!

:)

 
“All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.”
So enjoy the Drama.

That's so cool!

Yay! My only complaint is that at Swing State Project and Blogometer they quote me from MyDD and not here. Don't worry, though. We'll get there. We are still very young in the blog world.



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Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.