Interesting Polling Title and Results

If you look over at the headlines in the Premium Blogad section you will notice the headine: "New Poll: Obama Crushes Giuliani". I was interested, I clicked. The page goes on to describe the poll results this way:

May 6, 2007, 12:10AM EDT UPDATE:
GOP death march..... If new polling is accurate, it may not matter who the Republicans nominate.... For the first time this year, Rudy Giuliani trails all three Democratic frontrunners, according to a poll released today.... Newsweek reports that Barack Obama leads Giuliani 50%-43%; Hillary Clinton leads Giuliani 49-46%; and John Edwards leads Giuliani 50%-44%....

First, I like the idea that all of our candidates are kicking the collective butts of all of their candidates. I find it interesting that a seven point lead would be called crushing, and that Obama gets all the love when Edwards also leads by 6 points. There is something else that comes up in this poll, which I have seen over and over again, and which I cannot explain at all.

John McCain trails Obama by 13 points; McCain trails Hillary by 6 points; and McCain trails Edwards by 10 points....Mitt Romney would go down in flames by 22 points to Hillary, 29 points to Obama and 37 points to Edwards....

Okay, first of all, how come every poll here gives Obama, Clinton, then Edwards....when Edwards is always doing better than Clinton? Not my point though. And, the fact that McCain is getting whomped by all our candidates? Not my point. No my question is the change in numbers when you get to Romney. I have seen this for months now in every head-to-head poll, Edwards doing MUCH better than the field against Romney. Why?

I don't think it matters, because it seems to me that Romney is going down, down, down, in a ring of fire, in a ring of fire, but still, any thoughts on why this massive shift (Edwards over leading by 37 versus 22 by Obama)?

Comments

This poll also could have been titled....

first time anyone other than Edwards leads all GOP candidates, since he has been leading all three of them for the last month. It's interesting because if you follow their link to the Newsweek quote, Newsweek puts Edwards ahead of Hillary every time, where he belongs. A little bias built in perhaps?

One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Doublespeak,

has anyone else noticed, and I think the first time it made an impression on me was right after Katrina, that Shrub and then the pundits and then all the lying liars started prefacing their statements...We will have to look at the things that went right (as if there were any) and the things that went wrong... I've heard that repeated all over since and it bothers me.

It's the ability to submerge the truth of any matter in alot of words.The truth is simple to say, it's the lies that take forever.

I have noticed this over and over in the MSM Robert

It really pisses me off, but I think that the powers that be are afraid of Edwards and try to minimalize him when and wherever they can. After all, too many Americans get their opinions from the main stream manipulators!

No matter that patriotism is too often the refuge of scoundrels. Dissent, rebellion, and all-around hell-raising remain the true duty of patriots.

Progressive Discussions

Did you see Stephanopoulus?

I hope he has the courage to use the same strong-arm questioning tactics on Obama and Clinton. I thought that Edwards came off strong in the interview and that George came off as a man with a grudge, rather than as an objective interviewer.
Again, I hope he has the willpower to use the same tactics on his former boss, Mrs. Clinton.

One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Was Mrs. Clinton his boss?

or was she just married to his boss? Be clear about it - don't paint Mrs. Clinton with the same brush the republicans do.

_____________
The Den
My darling girl, when will you understand that 'normal' isn't necessarily a virtue. It rather denotes a lack of courage." - Alice Hoffman, Practical Magic

duly noted.

Actually, from what I remember from the "insider" gossip, she didn't like him and he didn't like her. So, maybe we can expect a very pointed interview.

One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Question.

Do you watch "This Week" regularly? I do and I watched yesterday's show, after reading your comment, expecting to see George Stephanopoulos being unusually hostile towards Edwards...and he wasn't. Similar things were said after Edwards' appearance on MTP and, honestly, it's just not true. There were two instances of Stephanopoulos talking over Edwards and one of him mischaracterizing what Edwards said (on tax cuts), but that's not entirely uncommon in world of Sunday talk.

Beyond that, though, what we all should have learned from the 2004 presidential primary is that, in order to win the White House, the tough questions need to be asked and that we shouldn't be afraid of facing them. You think whoever the Republican nominee is won't ask Edwards about his "flip-flop" on trade? John Kerry questioned him about it during the primaries, but it didn't register much...but now Edwards has built a kinship with labor that question becomes far more compelling.

At any rate, strong-arming or not, I thought Edwards acquitted himself well on Iraq and tax cuts. His answer on hedge funds, though, was deeply troublesome.

NY Times Article: A Team Community Gains Strength From Its Weakened Coach

----
There are people in every time and every land who want to stop history in its tracks. They fear the future, mistrust the present, and invoke the security of the comfortable past which, in fact, never existed. - Robert F. Kennedy

I agree about the M$M trying to minimalize Edwards

Our local outhouse companion, the Wilmington Star-News, has now run four syndicated press article "hits" on Edwards in as many months...while essentially ignoring the calamitous events going on in the world, Republican sleaze, and Obama's amazing proclivity to vote PRESENT rather than Yes or No while he was in the IL Senate. LINK HERE and read about it!

SE NC Dems

Stan Bozarth

romney

name id. the latest numbers i have seen for romney show him at 22% approval and 22% disapproval. He is still at about the levels of generic R, mostly because the only people that know him either would or wouldnt vote for him based on party label. Most people have no clue who he is, and that is going to affect the results.

Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Liddy 44 Brad 33

"Keep the Faith"

I wondered about this myself.

But, I guess what I'm wondering is how that plays into Edwards getting more support against him than the other candidates. I wonder if they do a Edwards (Clinton) (Obama) versus Generic Republican what the results would be.

Just to reiterate - I think all these national horserace polls are bull, so I probably shouldn't even be playing with them.

One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

I just don't think the polls mean anything.

Except for the ones I want to believe. :-D

The thing with polls is that it's so important how the questions are worded, how they're asked, and then how the answers are spun. 9 out of 10 americans wouldn't know how to interpret data if they had to, and I mostly include myself in the 9.
_____________
The Den
My darling girl, when will you understand that 'normal' isn't necessarily a virtue. It rather denotes a lack of courage." - Alice Hoffman, Practical Magic

And, I think of the 1 in 10

9 out of 10 of them would be wrong. And, I include myself in THAT 9 out of 10.
: )

One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Your the same as most pundits

Too often people use just the poll results that suit their argument and none of the other (often conflicting) data. I think we are all guilty.

Oh well, that's politics.

uploading a user icon

I can't upload a user icon to save my life. My image is 85 by 85 and under 30kb, and I've tried 6 times. What am I doing wrong?

http://www.acorn.org

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NCGV

we really need an "Ask Lance" regular feature!

I can't help - I didn't have any trouble with mine, but I don't know why I didn't have any trouble with mine.
_____________
The Den
My darling girl, when will you understand that 'normal' isn't necessarily a virtue. It rather denotes a lack of courage." - Alice Hoffman, Practical Magic

Icon

I tried it myself and it's not working. Must be since our last big switch. If you see this picture:
at the right side of this comment instead of the text "gregflynn's picture" it means Lance is working on it. Tell him the full file name and he may be able to find it and figure out what's happening. (us the "contact us" form)

Why, Indeed, Not Focus on Edwards?

The fact that Giuliani has been doing SO well in the polls probably means that....well, that polls this early don't mean much.

But, yes, Robert P is on to something, and I hadn't really noticed it. Not only is Edwards given lower billing than the numbers appear to imply, but the pairwise comparisons are interesting.

At this point, I think you have to assume that Edwards comes in first, or a very close second, in Iowa. His strategy has been clear and effective: focus on the counties, and even the community leaders, in small towns. Polls don't mean much in Iowa, if you have locked up the local leaders. Edwards is the most underrated candidate in Iowa, but almost everyone knows that.

Paradoxically, if the MSM downplays Edwards now, it will make his victory in Iowa seem surprising. And that will help him with fundraising.

So, if you are an Edwards fan, keep him flying under the radar. He is going to need a big infusion of funds, and a "surprise" win in Iowa would get him that.

I expect that may be why the Edwards camp doesn't object to being underbilled on these reports. It has to be galling, but it is their best shot for fundraising success.

"It is to secure our rights that we resort to government at all." --Thomas Jefferson to Francois D'Ivernois, 1795.

Michael C. Munger

Welcome back!

I was wondering where you disappeared to, I guess the semester is over now, so we'll look forward to more discussion with you.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

I did a forum recently as an Edwards volunteer

and this was exactly what I was telling people. Being third in national polls is actually a good place for Edwards to be right now. Lets not forget that going into Iowa four years ago, all anyone could talk about was Dean and then the press ate him alive, giving us Kerry. The longer that Edwards stays under the radar and does most of his work at the grassroots, person to person level, he is in a good place to get the nomination. The longer a truly progressive, and not "liberal," candidate is in front of the national press, the more time they have to roast them and try to give us some "liberal" elite candidate that "they" all want.

I am happy with Edwards in third. He should make every attempt to stay there until December, while at the same time, building good, far reaching, grassroots support.

CM

--
The Great appear great because we are on our knees – Let Us Rise!
-- “Big Jim” Larkin

The Great appear great because we are on our knees – Let Us Rise!
-- “Big Jim” Larkin

It's called draftin'

First you hang out right behind your opponent for several laps, using up all his gas and putting the wear on his tires.

Then you wait till the second turn and you go low, slingshot right into the backstretch, rub some paint on the way by.

And if they come back at you on the next two turns, you run them into the wall.

Don't forget, Edwards grew up in NASCAR country. Hillary grew up in Illinios. The only thing they race in Chicago is getting their parka on before that big ugly stormfront makes it to the Loop. Obama? I think he grew up surfing or something.

If it comes down to a race or a streetfight, I'll take the good ole boy.

"85% of Republicans are Democrats who don't know what's going on." -Robert Kennedy, Jr.

"Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." -Voltaire

Reminds me when I was in NH for Clark and met "Cooter"

From Dukes of Hazard. He made sure to meet all the southern staffers and asked us what we needed. A week later we got a box full of grits and moon pies.

CM

--
The Great appear great because we are on our knees – Let Us Rise!
-- “Big Jim” Larkin

The Great appear great because we are on our knees – Let Us Rise!
-- “Big Jim” Larkin

GOP death march

I really like the sound of that, and the trend of this poll. W's legacy to the GOP - may they wander in the minority wilderness for 40 years.

And a side note - how cool would it be for the POTUS to be from Chapel Hill, and the Southern White House to be in Chapel Hill.

Research moment Newsweek

I'd like to see the data on the people who chose Romney over Hillary, or Romney over Obama, but then chose Edwards over Romney. Maybe there is a pattern.

That's what I was wondering.

One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

I know this wasn't your point, but since you brought it up. . .

There are easy answers to why the MSM always has Edwards third fiddle to Obama and Clinton:
1---They have more money
2---They usually poll better against Edwards directly
3---More exciting to the media, being African-American and female, respectively
4---One is getting rock concert-sized crowds all over the country, one is a former first lady, and the other is a losing veep candidate from last time (oversimplification purely for illustrative purposes)

So, while it's not necessarily fair, get used to it and enjoy it. I think Edwards is in a great position to replace Obama or Clinton after one of them fails in Iowa, NH, or both. My guess is that it will be Clinton, but I'm biased as hell.

War is over if you want it.

War is over if you want it.