Join me in a little thought experiment. There are three potential outcomes in CT's upcoming Senatorial election (leaving out the really, really unlikely.)
II. There May Be a Two-Way Race. If Lieberman wins the Dem primary, it's him versus Republican Alan Schlesinger with the possible outcomes being:
- II-A) Lieberman Wins.
- II-B) Schlesinger Wins.
III. There May Be a Three-Way Race. If Lamont wins the Dem primary, it's him versus Republican Alan Schlesinger and Independent Joe Lieberman. Outcomes:
- III-A) Lamont Wins.
- III-B) Lieberman Wins.
- III-C) Schlesinger Wins.
We can put numbers on this, if we're so inclined. The chances of Lieberman winning is equal to his chances of winning a two way race plus his chances of winning a three-way race. Here's what I mean:
Say that there's a 70% chance that there will be a three-way race (and so a 30% chance of there being a two-way race). And say that Lieberman is 80% assured of winning a two way race but only 40% assured of winning a three-way. That means his overall chances of winning are
(30% x 80%) + (70% x 40%) = 24% + 28% = 52%
There are two problems with those numbers. One, nobody knows what they really are. Two, I'm much less qualified than most people to know what they are, since I don't watch CT closely or pay a lot of attention to the national blogs as a rule.
I guess what I really should do is send this to the good folks at My Left Nutmeg and let them fill the numbers in. My hunch, though, is that Lamont is going to come up a long shot, and the odds of CT coming out of the process with a Republican senator may be somewhat shorter. If I'm wrong about that, I'll stop being so confused about why this race produces so much heat and light.
Here's what we need to know.
- What are the chances that there will be a three way race? The answer to this question should be pretty close to whatever Lamont is polling against Lieberman right now.
- If there's a two-way race, what are the chances that Lieberman wins? That Schlesinger wins? (These two numbers should add up to 100%.)
- If there's a three-way race, what are the chances that Lamont wins? Lieberman wins? That Schlesinger wins? (These three numbers should add up to 100%.)
I'll leave this off the front page, as it has nought to do with NC politics.