Edwards up BIG in Iowa

From the Des Moines Register this morning..

Their newest Iowa poll has John Edwards up by a lot!

Edwards 36%
Clinton 16%
Obama 13%
Vilsack 9%

I hope the media doesn't turn on Edwards if he slips a few points. That seems inevitable with such a big early lead.

Comments

This is beautiful

and it is probably inevitable that he will slip a bit. We have a ways to go. Of course, the media is going to jump on it. He just has to keep doing what he is doing. Great job, Senator.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

What is odd...

is that he seems to be gaining! Even with Obama mania, he is picking up support in Iowa. Even with Hillary this and Hillary that, he is picking up support in Iowa. I think that says alot about Iowans and their independent attitudes.

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

you read my mind.

He looks to be gaining at a STEADY PACE. I think that is better than sudden jumps. I can't remember if big jumps is what Dean had or not.

It seems to me a steady pace up would leave you less vulnerable to sudden drops down. (like Howard Dean)

--
Town Called Dobson - Daily Political Cartoon: Not all is red in rural America!

I know that this far out, Dean was WAY down in the polls.

I don't know how his rise measured up, but he was WAY down to begin.

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Thanks for the link

I headed over and rec'd and will open and actually read my WSJ when I get home from Christmas shopping. I hope there is a good article that accompanies the poll numbers.

I am not concerned about Hillary's national numbers, b/c the decision will be made before many of these folks vote in their primaries.

Have there been any New Hampshire polls. I admit to not paying attention.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

Hillary vs. Field.

My problem with Mrs. Clinton, versus anyone else in the field, is that 40-50% of Americans say there is NO way they will vote for her in the general. Already. That is a high negative this far out.

Anyone else, Edwards, Obama, Clark, Gore - they don't have this negative.

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Not to take away from Edwards

but Hillary and Obama are having to split some voters.

John Edwards has been up in the polls in Iowa for a long time, though. He's been doing something right for a while in Iowa.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic! The ass you save may be your own.

I don't normally do things like this...

but here is a comment I posted over on DK.

If Edwards wins Iowa (3+ / 0-)

he wins it all. His union brotherhood and leanings will put him up in Nevada, then he will win SC easily if he has already won 2 primaries. I think he will win it no matter what, but it will be a crushing if he wins 2/3 going into SC. I lived there in 04 and the Edwards popularity and organization was big.

The February 5th primaries are:
* Alabama
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* New Jersey
* New Mexico
* North Carolina
* Utah
I don't know about the rest of them, but Edwards would have the advantage in North Carolina and Alabama for sure. That would make him aroudn 5/11 minimum with others being split????

The primary season, as of today, is really stacked up well for him. Assume the following:
Wins Iows
Wins Nevada
Win or Place in NH.
Wins South Carolina.

That takes him into the first Super Tuesday with all the momentum that John Kerry had in 04 (if not more), with North Carolina on the horizon and another strong southern state, Alabama there as well. I don't see Hillary coming close in Alabama. If Clark is in the race, Arkansas will be a battle between he and Hillary, otherwise Edwards can ignore it and say "home state" when Hillary wins. If Richardson is in the mix, he does well in the two SW states. That leaves NJ and Utah as the "toss-up" states.

Is New Jersey as unionized as my gut tells me, or have I watched too many movies? If it IS highly union, that could give Edwards a slight advantage there, while Clinton would have the homefield advantage of living next door.

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

wierd possibility

I agree with your predictions, with the caveat that if Richardson is able to pick up steam unexpectedly he would probably win new mexico and arizona, putting him in good shape for the VP spot. If he doesnt get any momentum then Clark will be in a similar, but slightly weaker place than Edwards was in 04. Considering the fact that many would like to see him as pres or VP anyway, a strong showing by Clark would be good for Edward's general election chances.

PS- Hillary is a classic big name right now. If she does worse than second in any f the first 3 primaries she is dead in the water.

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

I think she's dead in the water no matter what

And if she somehow manages to get the nomination, that's as good has handing the White House to ABH*.

* Anybody but Hillary

Check out the date

MyDD noticed that this poll was conducted in October! That is bizarre for it to be released now. So this poll really doesn't account for Obama-mania.

I noticed that as well.

It will give us a pretty good idea of what "false mania" does for a campaign. Before the media made him a "front-runner", he wasn't one. Now we'll see what happens. I would hate to think that the traditional media was picking candidates for the Democratic Party.

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

How do you suppose he'll handle

criticism for no foreign policy experienc....do you think that a possible adoption of someone like Clarke for VP would help?

Also, what about the Dem now in serious condition who if he gets worse will possibly be replaced by a Republican changing the majority in the Senate?

No matter that patriotism is too often the refuge of scoundrels. Dissent, rebellion, and all-around hell-raising remain the true duty of patriots.

two ways

I think that someone like Clark would be a huge help to him.

But also, his trips across the world are his response. I think that enough people in the country are starting to come around to the idea that you can solve the worlds problems with something other than a gun if you want.

Besides, the last 4 elections that I have seen show that foreign policy experience is a media bullshit qualification that voters dont care about.

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

I care about that qualification

I don't see Edwards improving it before he wins the nomination.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks

John Edwards has...

more meetings with world leaders and overseas travel than:
George Bush before he became President.
Probably close to the number Clinton took to Asia and other places as Governor of Arkansas.
Ronald Reagan.
I'm not sure about Carter.

How many dozens of meetings with world leaders does it take before you consider someone "qualified".

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

exactly

There is more to foreign policy experience than voting for 22 year olds to bomb some place.

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

New Jersey

Is New Jersey as unionized as my gut tells me, or have I watched too many movies? If it IS highly union, that could give Edwards a slight advantage there, while Clinton would have the homefield advantage of living next door.

I grew up there - it was pretty heavily union then, but I haven't lived there in 20 years. I'm told that Senator Clinton is not that popular there, and I'm told that by my born-and-bred Dem friends who live there. Of course, I haven't seen any actual hard data, though. Who knows?

"Be the change you wish to see in the world." - Ghandi

I'm losing my Kos-iness

Someone said this earlier, but I've found myself checking in less and less. I've even lost my TU status :(

Sure hope that doesn't happen here!

I go through phases.

I went through a serious no-kos period. But, if I'm going to be fighting the good fight for John Edwards for President (there is a story that he will announce on Dec. 29th), and Brad Miller for Senate (there is no such story, however, there should be), then I'll need to reinhabit kosland.

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

oh man

A draft Brad Miller movement on KOS would take off like you wouldnt believe.

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

I'm just waiting for our live blog with him : )

if there is the slighest hint...

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

when?

when is that gonna happen?

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

still setting up date.

sometime between Christmas and New year's. We'll announce it when we get a date.

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

TU

Thank U, you've cleared something up. TU status wasn't on my radar but one day I had new features that I thought were part of an upgrade but disappeared soon after. I thought it was a glitch. Seems I had 15 seconds of TU status.

tu at DK is a long-term thing.

once you have it and lose it, it is pretty easy to get back. But, the first time....well, it takes some serious mojo.

I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger and must be fought for. ~ Thornton Wilder

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me