Damn the Margin of Error to Hell

Shuler's looking good in NC-11 ("Shuler Keeps Lead in Race for US House"). I imagine he'll be leaving the MOE in the dust as he gets out and talks with more people in the District.

Comments

Good news.

There's all kinds of error in polling and I tend to be cautious, especially on early data. That said, this is great news. We should expect Chuck to start scratching like a rabid badger, though.

A

Or maybe he'll suddenly have a desire to "spend more time with his family" or else have some "unexpected health concerns" and abandon his losing effort.

its still early

But I'd rather be on the upside to such an early poll than on the flipside.

I can see it getting ugly first before Chuck throws the towel in. What does he have to lose? Surely not his integrity.

Be just, and fear not.

Our children need to know that some people fought back, when others collaborated.

Diplomatic Immunity?

Lord knows how many Russian fathers of teen aged girls are waiting in a line to sue for grandbaby support.

It's better to be ahead

than behind. Just ask Chuck. I look for this one to get ugly real fast. Taylor has an unlimited supply of rubles to spend.

Interesting Things In The Poll

The poll used an interesting sample:

Only 34% of those surveyed said that they were Democrats, with 44% Republicans, 19% Independents, and 2% others.

The fact that Heath is doing so well when the sample reflected only a 34% Democrat sample is tremendous, especially considering the NC-11's fame for having such a surplus of registered Democrats. Does the poll underestimate his lead? Hard to say. Registered voters, as Democrats know all too well doesn't neccesarily equate to likely voters.

Weird, weird sample: 50% over 60? I guess the fact that its a sample of likely voters could explain that.

Oh! One other thing I found heartening: the poll doesn't explicitly state this, but it looks to me that he is polling higher than simply "a Democrat." It's still all so marginal, but that seems pretty heartening.

A couple more keys

Heath has a 2-1 lead among independents (58-29%) and is picking up support from 18% of the GOP voters, 20% with leaners.

Chuck is losing his base.

In response to the comment about the 34% Dems

Hi, I work for Public Policy Polling. We weighted the results to ensure that they were representative of the 11th district, which is around 34% Democratic. I agree registered voters are not necessarily likely voters. To determine likely voters opposed to just registered voters, we only polled voters who have voted at least once in recent primaries.

Thanks for the comment

Polling can be difficult stuff to interpret, and this kind of help is much appreciated.

Thanks for the reply

Is that 34% a reflection of party registration or recent voting patterns? It just seems kinds of low registration-wise. I thought the Dems did a better job of gerrymandering the GOP out of the 11th and into the 10th District.

Thanks for the explanation:

Thanks for the explanation: Polling is tricky business. Public Policy Polling does great polls, and has an extremely qualified team in terms of poll methodology.

The qualification for a likely voter, someone "who has voted at least once in recent primaries" surprised me considering the low number of primary voters. "Likely voter" is a more exclusive category than I thought.

Polling is tricky business.

It is indeed.

I've weighed in on your methodology a bunch of times and won't do so again here because the questions are moot. With so much self selection at work with every method, the economically viable options available today are slim. The best we can do is take what's available and use it wisely.

So thanks for what you're doing.

Perhaps this tell us that

the Republican Party, which we already know is the party of immorality, lies more about their voting habits.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me